In recent hours, bitcoin has attempted to rebound above $94,000… before falling back just as quickly. Once again, he reminds us that its volatility is not a rumor, but rather its nature. However, beyond the roller coaster of its price, it is the evolution of the macroeconomic context which should really attract attention. Because behind the red or green candlesticks, it is the FED which is playing with the nerves of the crypto market.
In brief
- Bitcoin briefly rose above $94,000 before falling back below $92,500.
- The FOMC meeting could decide its near future, between euphoria or panic.
- Several analysts denounce a movement orchestrated by whales to trap small investors.
- The market remains suspended on Powell's tone, more than on the simple decision on rates.
The FED speaks, cryptos listen: why the economy is holding its breath
The verdict of the FOMC meeting is expected to be a turning point. The markets anticipate a drop of 0.25%, but that's not what scares or excites: it's the tone. Indeed, if Jerome Powell remains cautious about the future of rates or quantitative easing, investors could suddenly change course. Bitcoin, in particular, could plunge or soar.
Michael van de Poppe summarizes the issue :
Jerome Powell appears and adopts a restrictive tone, declaring: “I don't know if we will move forward with the rate cuts”, and the whole market reacts with a classic sell-off the news type correction.
With inflation still unclear, in particular because of the absence of recent CPI data, the FED is navigating by sight. This increases uncertainty in markets, which react more and more violently to perceived signals, even slight ones.
In this context, bitcoin becomes a thermometer of the global economy, more than a simple speculative asset. And when the thermometer goes crazy, it’s often the entire crypto market that follows. Solana, Ethereum, and even less liquid tokens all respond to the same macro triggers.
Whales, FOMO and manipulation: how long will crypto euphoria last?
BTC’s peak to $94,625 did not last. Some analysts denounce price manipulation orchestrated by whales. On X, the trader “NoLimit” comments :
This sudden spike in Bitcoin to $94,000 seems completely unnatural. People celebrate, but if you take a step back, even for 10 seconds, this movement bears all the signs of an orchestrated “pump”.
This meteoric surge quickly created a FOMO effect on the networks, as Santiment's analysis shows. The company indicates that calls for “higher” exploded just after the rise – a classic before reversals.
The other worrying element is that bitcoin remains in a strong negative correlation with stocks. When the latter fall, BTC plunges even harder. Hence the fear of a post-FOMC “sell the news”if the ads do not meet expectations.
Bitcoin at the crossroads of scenarios: crash to 78K or soar to 100K?
Two paths seem to be emerging. In the first, Powell remains unclear or worried: bitcoin falls back towards $78,000 – $82,000, taking altcoins and hopes of a rally with it. In the second, it clearly evokes a resumption of balance sheet expansion or liquidity support: BTC crosses $100,000 in 2025.
Ethereum, for its part, could take advantage of BTC's delay to widen the gap. Other cryptos, like Avalanche or Solana, could follow depending on the magnitude of the next move.
Points to remember: figures and key signals
- Bitcoin price: $92,330 at the time of writing;
- Critical zone: $78,000 – $82,000 in case of post-FOMC pullback;
- Major technical target: $100,000 in case of stimulus signal;
- 88.6% probability for a drop of 25 points according to CME;
- Persistent inverse correlation between BTC and stock indices.
While the FED is shaking the markets, another player is joining in: the Bank of Japan surprised by announcing an increase in its rates. In a generally restrictive context, the question remains: what if, ultimately, bitcoin held up better than expected?
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