Current world chaos is not the result of chance. According to historians Neil Howe and William Strauss, we are entering a destructive cycle that redraws companies every 80 to 100 years. This major transformation could upset the global economy, financial markets and redefine geopolitical order as we know it. In this coming collapse, Bitcoin may well be the outcome of rescue to save his savings.
In short
- The theory of “Fourth turning” predicts historical cycles of 80-100 years pea-up by major crises.
- The economic imbalances accumulated since 2008 create the conditions for a systemic collapse.
- Geopolitical tensions between the United States and China may trigger a major conflict.
A historical theory that predicts the collapse
The trade war launched by Trump, the debt crisis and the growing tensions between the United States and the Russian China block are all signs that announce a crisis in the capitalist model.
In 1997, Neil Howe and William Strauss revolutionized historical analysis with their work ” The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy“” . Their daring theory proposes that history evolves according to predictable cycles of four phases, each for about twenty years.
These four seasons invariably follow one another. First the ” High“, Period of prosperity and social cohesion, like the Thirty Glorious Years. Then the “Awakening“, Phase of questioning of the institutions by the young generations, as in the 1960s and 70s. Then the “Unraveling“, Marked by growing individualism and institutional weakening since the 1980s.
Finally comes the “Fourth turning”period of deep crisis where the old systems collapse. Historical examples include the American Revolution, the Civil War and the Great Depression leading to the Second World War.
According to Howe, we entered this critical phase between the mid -2000s and the early 2020s.
Catalysts of current collapse
Several converging factors explain why this Fourth turning manifests itself today. The first concerns economic imbalance accumulated for decades.
After the 2008 crisis, governments, companies and individuals took advantage of Historically low interest rate To go into debt massively. This artificial monetary expansion inflated asset prices while creating a dangerous dependence On cheap credit. Today, global debt reaches levels never seen, pushing countries and savings to their limits.
At the same time, the Political and social fragmentation intensifies. Confidence in governments, financial institutions and media is continuously eroding. THE inequalities of wealth Drizzle, fueling the polarization and the emergence of populist movements around the world, from Trump to the United States in Meloni in Italy.
THE Chinese geopolitical challenge constitutes the third major catalyst. The ascent of Beijing since the 1990s questions American domination, creating trade, technological and military tensions Recalling the rivalries of the previous Fourth Turnings. This competition between superpowers invariably destabilizes the established world order.
Economic scenarios of years to come
Facing these Systemic pressuresthe economic consequences could prove to be dramatic. When debts reach unbearable levels, governments have three main options: drastically reduce expenses, fail, or lack Create inflation to reduce the real level of debts.
Inflation remains historically the favorite political solutionbecause it discreetly reduces debt without unpopular budget cuts. However, this approach devastates ordinary citizens by eroding their savings and their purchasing power. The pandemic offered a taste of this reality, the governments having massively created money, causing A pricing essential goods.
If inflation escapes control, the authorities typically resort to Authoritarian measures Like financial repression, forcing investors and citizens to have government assets despite their rapid devaluation.
THE Geopolitical risks amplify these economic dangers. A conflict in the Taiwan Strait could quickly climb between the United States and China, breaking the global supply chains And causing generalized panic in the financial markets. This geopolitical polarization already forces nations to choose their camp, particularly between the West and the BRICS countries.
Bitcoin and actions to survive the collapse
This structural transformation requires a radically different investment approach. Financial expert Russell Napier predicts an extended era of financial repression, high inflation and capital controls.
Traditional obligations, formerly safe refuges, become dangerous. Faced with increasing inflation, bond holders will require higher yieldsprovoking the fall in existing prices. Have government or business obligations during this Fourth turning could graze your wallet.
Concerning actions, the new economic landscape promotes Tangible sectors : infrastructure, defense, raw materials, manufacture and energy. Governments will increase their expenses in these areas to rebuild economies, restore supply chains and strengthen national security.
THE raw materials offer special protection. Gold and silver perform historically well during periods of inflation and monetary devaluation. Gold could even become a new reserve asset If confidence in traditional currencies is crumbling, explaining its recent supported rally.
For cryptocurrencies, only those with a real adoption will probably survive the next lower market. Apart from Bitcoin and Ethereum, most cryptos will fall.
The decade 2020-2030 announces a tumultuous period. Given investors must now reposition their portfolios to the tangible sectors, diversify geographically and favor the preservation of their heritage, in particular by acquiring bitcoin. Although the near future promises to be chaotic, history teaches us that these periods of crisis invariably lead to renewed eras of peace and prosperity.
Maximize your Cointribne experience with our 'Read to Earn' program! For each article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start accumulating advantages.
