Vitalik Buterin believes that bitcoin security will resist advances in artificial intelligence. However, the Ethereum co-founder has not committed 90% of his fortune to a new bet because he believes his crypto holdings already expose him to such a scenario.
In brief
- Liron Shapira’s bet on a fall in Bitcoin in the face of AI.
- Vitalik Buterin puts the risks for network security into perspective.
- Software flaws in the face of cryptographic risks.
- Why 90% of Buterin’s fortune is already exposed to cryptos.
- The ability of blockchains to adapt to advances in AI.
A bet without contract or additional stake
On September 6, investor Liron Shapira clarified that AI would weaken the security guarantees given to bitcoin. It gives a 50% probability of BTC falling above 50% at price over the next two years.
He therefore writes on the social network X:
I assert, with 50% confidence, that the price of BTC will collapse by 50% or more in the next two years because AI will undermine what people imagined would be its security or robustness guarantees.
Vitalik Buterin publicly opposed this forecast. However, he did not enter into any formal bet with Shapira and did not transfer funds to a contract or prediction market.
Four main elements summarize their disagreement:
- Shapira attributes a probability of 50% to his scenario;
- He predicts a drop in bitcoin of more than 50% before September 2028;
- Buterin considers the risk of a breakdown of hash functions or proof of work to be minimal;
- The 90% corresponds to the approximate share of his assets already exposed to cryptos.
This September 7, with bitcoin close to $79,500, the realization of the scenario predicted by Shapira could require a drop below around $39,750. Such a threshold results from a simple calculation based on the current price, and not from a technical objective preestablished by the market.
Buterin distinguishes software flaws in cryptography
Bitcoin security does not rely on a single mechanism. Indeed, the network notably combines the SHA-256 hashing function, the proof of work, the software executed by the nodes as well as the infrastructure of the mining pools.
According to Buterin, AI would make it easier to discover flaws at the client level, in peer-to-peer systems or at the infrastructure level of mining companies. However, these problems could be corrected through coordinated updates between developers and operators, without changing the fundamental rules of the protocol.
So a break in SHA-256 could pose a deeper problem. A change to this function could likely require a major change at the protocol level and broad social agreement among those involved in the advancement and security of the blockchain.
Vitalik Buterin therefore underlines: “I’m pretty optimistic about cybersecurity in the long term. I consider that the main problem is to succeed in the transition ».
He also thinks that “the likelihood of real breakdowns of hash functions or proof of work is minimal”. Its position therefore does not amount to denying all the risks relating to AI. It is based on the idea that bitcoin corrects the majority of vulnerabilities before they permanently compromise the network.
The 90% mainly concerns its holdings in ether
The formula of “90% bet” can be misleading. This is why Buterin clearly explains that his current investments already represent a stance against the Shapira scenario.
He therefore specified : “I would propose a bet, but given my assets, I am already essentially taking this bet with about 90% of my wealth”.
A large part of its identified heritage is composed of Ether. Arkham Intelligence valued its known crypto holdings at nearly $559 million at the end of August, or nearly 224,000 Ether. This estimate remains incomplete, because it is based on the public addresses attributed to Buterin and does not allow us to know the entirety of his assets.
His argument also goes beyond the exclusive security of bitcoin. An evolution of AI capable of breaking primordial cryptographic primitives could also threaten Ethereum and many other digital systems. Its Ether holdings could therefore likely lose a significant portion of their value in such a scenario.
Buterin’s comments constitute a mark of confidence in the adaptability of blockchains, not an additional investment of several hundred million dollars. So the main debate is over how quickly networks would migrate to new protections if AI uncovers a major vulnerability.
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