Traders hold their breath: $ 13.8 billion in Bitcoin options are expired

This August 29, $ 13.8 billion in Bitcoin options will expire, a deadline that could dictate the market trajectory. The BTC has just touched its lowest in six weeks, stirring the tensions between weakened buyers and sellers determined to defend their positions. More than a simple technical meeting, this confrontation on derivatives crystallizes uncertainty surrounding the immediate future of Bitcoin.

Duffer options: an unbalanced market before deadline

A few days before the monthly expiration of BTC options, the available data reveal a blatant imbalance between bull and lowering positions, while the main crypto slows down.

The total amount of Bitcoin options due in maturity on August 29.1.8 billion dollars, with 85 % of the volume concentrated on the deribit platform.

The relationship between purchasing and sales options, however, reveals the overlying of bullish strategies in nominal value: “7.44 billion dollars of purchase options are open against 6.37 billion sales options”.

However, this apparent domination of Haussiers investors masks a less favorable technical reality: most of the purchase options are positioned well above the current Bitcoin price, fell to $ 112,100, its lowest level in six weeks.

In this configuration, the sales options are clearly reinforced, as illustrated by the Distribution of positions by price tranches On deribit:

• Between $ 105,000 and $ 110,000: $ 210 million in purchase options for $ 2.66 billion for sales;
• Between $ 110,100 and $ 114,000: $ 420 million in purchase options for $ 1.94 billion for sales those;
• Between $ 114,100 and $ 116,000: $ 795 million in purchase options for $ 1.15 billion for sales those;
• Between $ 116,100 and $ 118,000: Haussiers investors resume the advantage with $ 1.3 billion in purchase options for $ 830 million for those of sale;
• Between $ 118,100 and $ 120,000: the advantage is even more marked for bullshit, with $ 1.7 billion in purchase options for only $ 560 million in sales options.

These scenarios favorable to bullish investors assume a bitcoin rebound over $ 116,000 before August 29, one less and less likely hypothesis in view of the current pressure.

Indeed, only 12 % of the purchase options were placed at $ 115,000 or less, which makes the majority of these inoperative options at this stage. The sellers are in ambush, particularly around the threshold of $ 112,000, where a notable concentration of selling options place them in a force for the deadline to come.

Macroeconomic pressures: when the Fed and AI are invited in the match

Beyond the dynamics specific to the options market, operators closely monitor the evolution of the macroeconomic economic situation. The speech of Jerome Powell, president of the American federal reserve, during the Jackson Hole symposium scheduled for Friday, is eagerly awaited.

Indeed, the macroeconomic context nevertheless remains misty, fueled by the latest employment data in the United States. Data published Thursday, higher than expected, add uncertainty to an already feverish market.

Another unexpected factor weighs on the morale of investors: the rise in concerns linked to the financing of the artificial intelligence sector. The concerns intensified after Morgan Stanley warned that the increase in spending could limit the capacity of large technological companies to buy their actions.

These signals from Wall Street feed increased prudence on risk markets, including cryptos, which remain correlated with technological assets.

Ultimately, the outcome of the August 29 deadline may well depend on factors outside the Crypto market. If Bitcoin fails to quickly regain $ 114,000, pivot level identified as the rocking point between the purchase and sale options, the sellers will go out largely winners of this battle. However, a change of tone of the Fed like the anticipated Goldman Sachs, a lull on the equity markets and a new technical impulse could still rebut the cards.