Bitcoin: Traders are betting on a late surge in 2026

For some crypto bettors, the highlight of bitcoin would not be immediate, but focused on the end of 2026. On Polymarket, December remains the favorite month, around 16 to 17% probability, ahead of October and November.

December takes the lead in anticipations

Prediction markets see bitcoin ending 2026 stronger than it begins. Finbold, based on Polymarket, shows that December still leads the way, with October and November just behind. The message is clear. Traders aren't really buying the idea of ​​a big boom in the spring. They are instead looking at the last turn of the year.

This bias towards the end of the year is also visible in the volumes observed on monthly contracts. December was among the most followed months, but November had even higher volume, which reflects a conviction that is built over several months, not on a single isolated bet. Clearly, bitcoin is not just aiming for a jump. It begins to draw a bullish window spread between fall and winter.

However, one nuance must be kept. Polymarket is not a crystal ball. It is a thermometer of conviction. The platform also reminds that prices reflect implicit probabilities from buyers and sellers who risk real capital, with more than $605,000 in volume already processed on this specific market. This makes the signal interesting, but not foolproof.

Seasonality supports the scenario, without guaranteeing it

Why does this bet on the end of the year come up so often? Because the bitcoin story clearly leans towards the fourth quarter. Data taken from CoinGlass shows that Q4 is, over a long period, the strongest quarter, with a historical average located around 77% to 85% depending on the calculation windows put forward by various market publications.

In this diagramOctober and November often weigh more heavily than December. This is important, because the narrative of a “December explosion” is a little too simple. In reality, the push is often prepared beforehand. The post-summer recovery, the repositioning of portfolios and a revival of institutional activity sometimes create a dynamic which then spills over into the end of the year.

But the seasonal argument has a flaw, and it is recent. The fourth quarter of 2025 has broken the myth of an automatically euphoric Q4. Bitcoin fell about 23%, far from its historical average. In other words, the models of the past remain useful for reading a market, not for imposing a destiny on it. When macro, liquidations and risk aversion dominate, seasonality takes a back seat.

The current bitcoin price does not yet validate the euphoria

In the short term, the chart remains much colder than the story. As of April 1, 2026, bitcoin is trading around $68,331, with an intraday high of $69,170. The market is rebounding, yes, but it is still not clearly reaching the $70,000 zone. This detail matters, because a real lasting recovery often needs to reconquer simple thresholds before rekindling the bullish imagination.

The technical table therefore remains shared. Bitcoin still remains slightly below its 50-day moving average, set at $69,191, and very far from its 200-day moving average, around $91,046. This does not tell of a broken market, but it even less tells of a market launched towards a clean and clear surge.

The 14-day RSI is around 48 according to this same reading. It is a neutral level. There is neither extreme panic nor overwhelming euphoria. In short, the markets are betting on an explosion in BTC at the end of 2026, but the price, for the moment, still requires proof. The scenario exists. It just hasn't started to establish itself on the chart yet.