The storm may be brewing for Bitcoin. This time, it is not the result of the usual vagaries of the market, but of an analysis which anticipates a decline likely to shake investor confidence. As Bitcoin flirts with a new all-time high around $76,000 on November 8, 2024, respected analyst Benjamin Cowen warns of a possible substantial drop in the price. According to him, a turnaround could take shape at the beginning of December, and coincide with the publication of the American employment report.
Towards a drop in Bitcoin in December?
Benjamin Cowen, CEO of ITC Crypto and an influential figure in the field of crypto analysis, shared an alarmist prediction. For him, Bitcoin could be on the verge of a significant fall. “I think a Bitcoin pullback could happen as early as December, and it will be big enough to be scary,” declaredhe said in a video addressed to his community. According to Cowen, this drop could occur after the publication of the monthly US employment report scheduled for December 6. He envisions a potential correction in the range of 12% to 46% from current levels. Such a situation suggests two distinct scenarios: either a moderate correction around $65,000, or a more marked fall to $40,000.
Cowen, however, remains cautious about the possible consequences of this correction. He emphasizes that the fall, if it occurs, could only be temporary. “What remains unclear to me is whether this fall will serve as a simple test of support before a rise in 2025, or whether it will mark a deeper low,” he adds. Thus, these words reveal the uncertainty that reigns, even among experts, about the direction that the market will take in the coming months.
Between political uncertainties and market cycles
For Cowen, the anticipation of a decline in Bitcoin goes beyond a simple technical prediction. It is anchored in a very specific macroeconomic and political context. The post-election economic climate in the United States, combined with employment figures, could indeed influence the reaction of crypto investors. Cowen raises the possibility that some interpret this decline as a sign of the end of the cycle for Bitcoin, but he qualifies: “this could well be a simple consolidation before a new rise to unprecedented heights in 2025”. Such analysis echoes past trends, where corrections often preceded periods of strong growth.
This possible correction, although temporary, could have lasting implications on market sentiment. In a context of rising interest rates and global economic uncertainties, a drop in Bitcoin could also influence other crypto assets, and amplify the volatility of the sector. However, Cowen suggests that a return to lower levels could also provide investors with a new buying opportunity, ahead of a potential bullish recovery.
If the scenario envisaged by Cowen comes true, caution will still be required for investors, who will have to avoid giving in to panic in the event of a sudden fall. This prediction also opens up prospects for 2025. It suggests that current volatility could set the stage for new records in the years to come. It remains to be seen whether this move will be seen as simply a temporary dip or as a deeper indicator of the limits of Bitcoin's resilience in the face of global economic fluctuations.
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