Bitcoin evolves in an almost critical area of balance. Usually subject to marked fluctuations, the asset has recorded historically low implicit volatility in recent days, a situation that intrigues analysts as much as it worries. While the markets remain awaiting a strong signal, a well -known figure in the sector, Michael Saylor, suggests a new massive purchasing movement for his Strategy company. Is the bitcoin market at the dawn of an explosive movement? While the interest open on BTC's term contracts decreases and volatility reaches historical hollows, certain clues suggest that a period of strong activity could follow.
Volatility at the lowest: a market under tension
For several days, the implicit volatility of Bitcoin has been in free fall. According to Glassnod data, the volatility indicator carried out over a week reached 23.42 %, a level rarely observed. “In four years, it was low than a few times: in October 2024 (22.88 %) and in November 2023 (21.35 %)”, precise On-chain analysis. These levels recall those which, historically, preceded major price movements.
Such a situation is part of a context where Bitcoin seems to be stuck in a narrow range, despite events that can potentially influence its price, such as the recent massive piracy of Bybit. However, even after this attack, Bitcoin ended his session in the same price area where he has been playing for two weeks, which highlights unusual inertia for the assets.
Michael Saylor and Strategy: a bullish signal in preparation?
If the volatility indicators report a period of calm, other elements could suggest an imminent revival of activity. The CEO of Strategy, Michael Saylor, shared on February 23, 2025 on the X platform (ex Twitter) a graphic of the company's bitcoin assets, a gesture often associated with massive acquisitions in the past. “I don't think it reflects everything I did last week,” he notedand suggests that additional purchases could be in progress.
In parallel, a drop in open interest in the term contracts of bitcoin has been observed, which has come to its lowest level since February 9. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades precise On February 22, 2025 on the social network X “that a drop in open interest combined at a stable price can be a good referral to zero, provided that the cash market takes over”. In other words, if bitcoin is currently in an accumulation phase, a bull movement could follow if sufficient buying pressure is manifested.
The data suggests that the market is in a waiting phase, but the historical precedents show that such periods have often been followed by significant price movements. Glassnode recalls that the prolonged decline in implicit volatility have, in the past, preceded “major volatility”, even if the movement of the movement remains uncertain. If the accumulation continues and the purchases of institutional actors are confirmed, Bitcoin could start up with a possible target around 100,000 dollars, as some observers anticipate it. Conversely, if the market does not find sufficient impulse, a correction could be on the agenda.
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