The Looming Threat That Could Bring Down the United States

The United States is facing multiple perils: debt, inflation, civil war, climate… However, a terrifying threat could well be imminent and lead to the fall of the United States., in a historical upheaval comparable to 1945.

2024: A Decisive Year for the United States

This year 2024 is an election year. So everyone is even more worried than usual about the future of the American nation. Prophecies of doom are coming thick and fast on social media.

Progressives fear that Donald Trump destroys democracy, declares himself dictator and establishes fascism with the help of a captive Supreme Court.

Conservatives are concerned about the border, immigration, transgender movementwhile mumbling about the civil war.

Leftists are wringing their hands over theclimate apocalypse.

Centrists decry America's red tape and inertia, and libertarians predict hyperinflation and a collapse of the dollar.

In the background, everyone is worried about China and the risk of war. From World War 3.

Existential dangers

Most of these events are due to the usual American tendency to catastrophize everything.

If you go back and read what people wrote in any decade of our past, there were always plenty of people warning that doom was imminent.

In fact, I think that while this behavior is undeniably annoying, it can be very useful because it is good to tackle problems before they become serious, and a rich country with well-established institutions has a lot of inertia.

It seems that the danger of internal unrest, civil war and authoritarianism has passed, despite the likely election of Trump this fall.

The economy will probably do well, but The national debt is a huge and looming problem that could do a lot of harm if mismanaged..

While most internal threats are less serious than we think, The external threats to the United States are serious and becoming more so.

The United States is facing an axis of larger, more productive and more technologically advanced enemies than those faced so far, and which are ideologically determined to degrade the wealth, stability and autonomy of the United States.

The United States threatened by war

If the United States does not react vigorously to this new axis, we risk ending up in a catastrophe, whether it is a defeat for the United States in the second cold war or a third world war that we would not be able to prevent.

This danger makes America's domestic problems much more serious than they would otherwise be, because These internal quarrels could weaken America and prevent it from facing real threats.

Democracy in danger

Donald Trump has extremely anti-democratic instincts. He denied the result of a free and fair election he lost in 2020, he encouraged a crowd of his supporters to physically storm the Capitol in an attempt to prevent the ratification of the election and he will almost certainly pardon those convicted in connection with the coup attempt.

Trump considers any election he loses to be illegitimate. It doesn't get more undemocratic than that.

Biden's age made Trump the frontrunner, and Biden's only real replacement is Kamala Harris, who is deeply unpopular.

Once in power, Trump will degrade American democracy a bit by trying to strengthen presidential immunity. In fact, he committed many crimes and he would prefer not to be prosecuted and convicted for these crimes.

Even though Trump probably has no respect for democracy, His victory will not make America an autocratic or fascist state.

US economy in good health

Overall, the U.S. economy remains strong – employment is near historic highs, and inflation has fallen to a tolerable level of about 3%.

Wealth is rising, the younger generation is significantly wealthier than their parents were at the same age, and both wage and wealth inequality appear to have plateaued.

The United States is growing much faster than other rich economies, and may even keep pace with China.

It's true that it's more expensive to finance a home these days, but rates aren't at historically high levels, and most people don't buy homes every year anyway.

Meanwhile, most of the things that the doomsayers predicted about the economic collapse in the years following the pandemic have ended up being contradicted.

WhenA handful of mid-sized regional banks collapsed in early 2023 due to rising interest ratesthe government simply stepped in and guaranteed deposits for a while, and the whole crisis was forgotten a month later.

Inflation has not skyrocketed, thanks to the Fed's decision to raise rates.

The risk of migration

When it comes to immigration, everyone is upset by the influx of asylum seekers crossing the border.

This problem will not be solved until The United States will not change its asylum law to prevent people who entered the country illegally from seeking asylum.

Executive actions are being taken today in a bipartisan manner.

Biden is now just as tough on immigration as Trump was.

The debt burden

From an economic point of view, the United States seems to be able to get by.

But there is a big economic problem that is extremely worrying, It's the national debt.

Rising interest rates have caused government interest payments to explode. The obvious solution is austeritybut neither party seems particularly interested in austerity, and Trump seems particularly unwilling to do what needs to be done.

Instead of that, Trump will likely pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, to support growth while reducing government interest payments.

But if he succeeds, it could result in an inflationary spiral. The fact that inflation remains above its long-term target suggests that there isThe underlying pressures for higher prices are currently being suppressed by 5% interest rates.. If this cover is removed, The consequences could be very painful for America.

The Russian-Chinese axis

There is a threat that the United States cannot ignore, This is the threat of the China/Russia axis.

One obvious threat is the outbreak of war between the United States and China, either about Taiwaneither about the Philippines, allies of the United States.

It would be World War III, even if it did not result in a nuclear exchange.

There is a good chance that America will lose this war. The American manufacturing sector, and in particularThe defense industrial base has atrophied as China now dominates the world.

Any war that lasts more than two weeks – which is the case for most wars – would strongly favor the country that can produce more ships, missiles, drones and munitions. That country is China.

If China invaded Taiwan, it would be highly unlikely that it would run the risk of the United States intervening to prevent it. This means that China would likely preemptively attack US bases in the region.

Towards a new Pearl Harbor

Even if a President Trump intended to defend Taiwan, The sudden, unprovoked deaths of thousands of American servicemen in a Pearl Harbor-style attack would make popular pressure for war overwhelming.

The only thing the United States would accomplish by not properly preparing for such a war would be to make itself more susceptible to lose quickly and ignominiously in the first few days.

These dreams will outlive Xi and Putin. And both China and Russia recognize that, Trump or not, The United States of America is their greatest rival and the most significant long-term threat to their imperial ambitions.

The new Russian-Chinese axis will therefore seek to weaken the United States by all possible means, in order to reduce the threat.

How will the Russian-Chinese axis attack the United States?

To fully neutralize the long-term threat posed by America, these countries will want impoverish the American economy, sabotage its infrastructure, and disrupt its internal social and political stability.

To impoverish America, it will be necessary to cut it off from trade or force it to trade under unfavorable conditions.

China and Russia will therefore try to achieve this by controlling global trade routes.

The United States and its democratic allies are currently in the process of losing an information war.

America has shown some signs of awakening by adopting a Bill orders China to sell TikTok to US companybut Trump will try to scuttle the divestment bill once he is in office.

China and Russia are both deeply unpopular with the American public, but most Americans are focused on partisan political conflicts and economic issues. The broader geopolitical competition against China and Russia is not something most Americans are aware of, much less understand the consequences of losing.