Ethereum could soon be in a technical dead end while the growth of layer 2 solutions threatens to saturate its treatment capacity, despite the planned improvements.
In short
- The current capacity of three blobs per Ethereum block becomes insufficient in the face of the growth of L2.
- Even after the Pectra upgrade which will double this capacity, simulations provide for rapid saturation.
- One of the L2 transactions could increase the costs at $ 0.64 per transaction.
- Ethereum should reach at least 33 Blobs per block to maintain viable costs.
A race against the watch for the scalability of Ethereum
Since the introduction of EIP-4844, Ethereum has used “blobs »» As a low -cost storage mechanism to support L2 networks as a basis, arbitrum and optimism.
These solutions make it possible to unload the main network while preserving its safety. However, the current capacity of three Blobs per block now constitutes a major constraint.
The next Pectra update, scheduled for May 7, 2025, will double this capacity to six Blobs per block. But according to the projections of reportthis improvement will remain insufficient in the face of the accelerated adoption of L2.
The simulations show that a multiplication by ten of the transactional volume on these networks would push costs at prohibitive levels, potentially reaching $ 0.64 per transaction.
Even with future upgrades like Peerdas and Fusaka, experts believe that Ethereum should support at least 33 Blobs per block to maintain the L2 transaction costs below $ 0.02.
Base perfectly illustrates the challenges of the model
The basic case, the Coinbase L2 blockchain, perfectly illustrates this dilemma. Since its launch, Base has generated more than $ 106 million in fees, integrated more than 155 million addresses and contributed $ 4.5 million in Blob for Ethereum.
With an average of 93 transactions per second in the past six months, Base demonstrates both the profits and challenges of the current model. This blockchain already secures nearly $ 10 billion of total value, strengthening the Ethereum ecosystem, but its continuous growth could exertable pressure on the existing infrastructure.
If Ethereum fails to quickly adapt its Blobs capacity, it risks seeing its compromised L2 strategy, with a return to high costs which would cancel the advantages of scaling solutions.
In a scenario where L2 transactions would increase by ten times, the annualized revenues of Ethereum would reach approximately $ 1.4 billion, the equivalent of its current fee generation.
The future of Ethereum as a vertebral column of decentralized applications will therefore depend on its ability to resolve these technical constraints before they become an insurmountable obstacle to its adoption.
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