Investors scrutinize the smallest signals from the American Federal Reserve (Fed), whose monetary policy could be the trigger of a lower market. If some hoped for rate reductions from 2024, the last declaration of the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, cooled the ardor. The absence of rate reduction could put under pressure the financial markets, in particular risky assets such as Bitcoin. The economist Timothy Peterson warns: if the Fed does not cut its rates in 2025, the Nasdaq could fall, and would entail with him the cryptos market. Any bitcoin correction under $ 70,000 is now a serious hypothesis.
Fed decisions and their consequences on Bitcoin
The Fed plays a crucial role in the balance of financial markets. Jerome Powell stressed that the institution was “well positioned to wait for greater clarity”, and thus rejected any anticipation of lower interest rates. A wait -and -see posture that could weigh heavily on risky asset markets. Timothy Peterson, author of the economic model based on the law of Metcalfe, believes that this inertia could precipitate a fall of the Nasdaq by 17 % over seven months. According to him, Bitcoin would follow a similar trajectory. Thus, this correction with a drop estimated at 33 % would bring the crypto around 57,000 dollars.
However, the analyst nuances his point. He believes that Bitcoin will probably not fall as low due to the strong presence of investors ready to seize the slightest buying opportunity. “There are always traders that rush on Bitcoin when they believe that its price is low enough,” affirm-Is in a publication on social network X (formerly Twitter) on March 8, 2025. Thanks to the trends of 2022, he recalls that when many analysts provided a low point to 12,000 dollars, Bitcoin had dropped only $ 16,000, 25 % above initial projections.
Divergent perspectives on the evolution of bitcoin
While Timothy Peterson highlights a possible correction under $ 70,000, other experts have a more optimistic vision. Arthur Hayes, co -founder of Bitmex, anticipates a correction phase between $ 70,000 and $ 75,000, but then plans a massive rebound up to $ 250,000 by the end of the year. According to him, a return of the monetary creation policy could play in favor of Bitcoin and propel its price at record levels.
For its part, Blockware Solutions offers a very different scenario. The firm believes that, even in a lower case, Bitcoin could reach $ 150,000 in 2025 if the Fed finally decided to reverse its policy. The market therefore remains shared between a short -term correction and a potential bullish rally if the monetary policy became more flexible.
This uncertainty underlines an essential reality: Fed policy remains a decisive factor for crypto investors, and any signal, whether restrictive or accommodating, will have immediate repercussions on the market. The volatility of bitcoin could increase in the coming months, which would make each decision of the Capital Fed for the trajectory of cryptos.
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