At 37,000 billion dollars, American debt reaches an unprecedented level, nourishing doubts about the solidity of the dollar. While the markets wonder, Bitcoin climbs beyond 124,000 dollars, resulting in the entire crypto sector towards summits. Between budgetary concern and rush to alternative assets, a switch seems to take place.
In short
- American public debt reaches a record level of $ 37,000 billion, arousing growing concern in the markets.
- Economist Kenneth Rogoff, a former Bitcoin skeptic, admits that he was mistaken and alerts a risk of loss of influence from the dollar.
- Several macroeconomic factors, including high interest rates and the absence of budgetary reforms, weaken the dollar position.
- Jerome Powell, president of the Fed, talks about a possible drop in rates in September, strengthening interest in cryptos.
A record debt and the growing mistrust of the dollar
American public debt has crossed $ 37,000 billion this year. This critical threshold feeds an exponential distrust of the dollar, which remains the main global reserve currency.
Kenneth Rogoff, former IMF economist and Professor at Harvard, recognized on the social network X (ex-Twitter): “Almost ten years ago, I was Harvard's economist who said that Bitcoin was more likely to fall to 100 dollars than reaching 100,000. What did I miss? »».
In a column, Rogoff goes further and evoked A disturbing dynamic: “In the medium and long term, the dollar could lose market share against the Chinese Yuan, the Euro, even the Cryptos”.
This questioning of the supremacy of the dollar is explained by a series of critical macroeconomic factors synthesized in its latest analysis:
- The persistent increase in interest rates decided by the federal reserve, supposed to curb inflation, mechanically increases the cost of the debt service;
- The absence of deep budgetary reforms reinforces the idea of a structural addiction to debt, as Rogoff points out in his article entitled “America's Coming Crash” ;
- Markets are starting to integrate the risk of a “Lost decade”For the American economy, in the words of the economist;
- The geopolitical balance is changing: the dollar could lose its status of hegemonic currency, weakened both from the inside (by the debt) and the exterior (by the rise of alternative currencies).
These combined elements ask a fundamental question: is the dollar still an asset refuge? More and more investors, institutional and individuals, seem to doubt it, and are now looking for tangible alternatives in the crypto universe.
The crypto alternative takes shape on the background of monetary collapse
While the alert signals accumulate on the dollar, the cryptos market has a spectacular ascent. Bitcoin exceeded $ 124,000, while the total capitalization of the Crypto market crossed $ 4,000 billion, a historic first.
This leap is part of a particular context, because the federal reserve could consider a drop in rates in September, as Jerome Powell heard during the highly anticipated Jackson Hole symposium.
Such an inflection had an immediate effect. “This could supercharger the story of the bitcoin as a cover against the uncertainty of fiduciary currencies”,, estimated Jessy Gilger, investment advisor at Unchained.
This momentum is also powered by unexpected political positions. President Donald Trump validated the constitution of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, a strong symbolic gesture which contributes to further legitimizing the role of cryptos in the real economy.
Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, goes so far as to predict a Bitcoin at $ 1 million by 2030. In an interview with John Collison (co -founder of Stripe), he justifies this forecast by the combination of several factors: growing adoption by Wall Street, clearer regulation, and above all deterioration of the American debt/GDP ratio, 170 % currently.
These events draw the contours of a world where cryptos are no longer only speculative assets, but monetary adjustment instruments in a recomposition landscape. As the dollar loses credibility, Bitcoin could establish itself as a latest generation refuge asset, less volatile than Nasdaq and S&P 500, especially if economic policies are struggling to restore stability.
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