The decade of the economic chasm began

The global economy is preparing to know its most gloomy decade since the 1960s. This forecast could well redesign the economic balance of power on a planetary scale. The alert is given by the World Bank, whose last report, published on June 10, 2025, paints a dark picture of the near future, in a context of increased trade tensions and prolonged political uncertainties.

Global stoppage: Pressure growth

While the trade tensions relaunched by Trump are becoming more and more sustainable, the World Bank is sounding the alarm in its half -yearly report published on June 10. The global economy has been moving around its lowest decade since the 1960s, with sluggish average growth and persistent trade tensions.

The report announces a revision of the decline in forecasts in nearly two thirds of the countries, and points to the aggressive trade policies of US President Donald Trump.

The report noted :

Almost two thirds of countries in the world see their forecast of growth revised downwards.

The entry into force of a universal customs tax of 10 % on all American imports, as well as targeted increases in steel and aluminum, generated instability in the financial markets, accentuated in early April.

The effects of these protectionist decisions are multiple and already measurable:

• A global growth forecast revised downwards: 2.3 % in 2025 (compared to 2.7 % in January), and 2.6 % for 2027;

• The United States affected: a downward revision of forecasts for 2025 and 2026, due to the fall in private consumption and the distrust of investors;

• The prices deemed illegal in May, but kept temporarily following an appeal from the United States government;

• The fall in the markets in April, marked by an influx of volatility and a strong uncertainty about future trade policies;

• The risk of a global trade in the second half of the year, according to the World Bank, which speaks of a possible “Global trade seizure“And”Tormented on the financial markets»;

• A global recession not excluded, but estimated at less than 10 % probability for the moment.

This accumulation of negative signals draws a tense economic climate, where the trade war started by Washington threatens the stability of the global system.

Advanced savings like Japan, the United States and the euro zone undergo a clear decline in their prospects, which confirms the systemic nature of this emerging crisis.

Between resilience and fracture: China holds, the West vacillates

Contrary to this generalized gloom, China, a member of the BRICS group, is an exception in the report. Unlike the United States, the European Union or in Japan, Chinese growth forecasts have not been revised downwards.

The World Bank justifies this stability by the solidity of the Chinese financial system, and evokes its ability to cope with “Significant opposite winds“In a context of”Strong global political uncertainties».

This differentiation informs about a possible rocking in the global economic hierarchy. While the United States undergoes a contraction in private consumption and a decrease in investors' confidence, Beijing seems to take advantage of the situation by appearing as a relative stability center.

The maintenance of Chinese forecasts could strengthen its position on the international economic scene, especially if trade tensions persist and more weaken Western economies.

This imbalance could have notable consequences on alternative financial markets, including cryptos. If protectionist policies persist, investors could continue to seek refuge values, such as Bitcoin which becomes less volatile, decorated with traditional geopolitical tensions.