European markets are closing up on the eve of new Trump announcements

While European markets record a technical increase, looks turn to Washington. Supported by encouraging economic indicators, the main stock market indices on the old continent closed in the green on Tuesday. However, this upturn remains fragile. Investors hold their breath on the eve of Donald Trump's potentially decisive announcements, which could relaunch the trade offensive of the United States. The possibility of new customs barriers rekindles tensions and threatens to rebound the cards of global economic balance.

A rebound in the clues carried by the economic figures

The European scholarships completed a clear increase on Tuesday, supported by economic data deemed encouraging in the euro zone.

The CAC 40 climbed 1.15 %to 7,880.1 points, the German Dax gained 1.67 %, and the British footsia 0.61 %. This increase is mainly explained by a deceleration of inflation in the euro zone in March, which feeds the hope of a more accommodating monetary policy of the ECB.

Inflation slows down, which opens the way to a more flexible ECB, while the Eurostoxx 50 index also recorded a gain of 1.49 %. This context rekindled the appetite for risky assets, which influenced the bond markets.

Among the key elements that supported the markets on Tuesday, there is:

• The drop in bond yields, especially in the United States, where the 10-year rate fell to 4.1613 % (-8.4 pb), which reflects increased demand for shelters;
• Technical support linked to the relaxation of prices in Europe, in opposition to the American trend;
• The good performance of several values ​​in Europe: solutions 30 jumped +10.7 %, after having confirmed its objectives for 2026, Schneider Electric won +2.4 %, following a recovery of HSBC recommendation, while the Oréal was added to the list of “conviction” values ​​of Goldman Sachs, and increased by +3 %;
• Cost -covered movements on the exchange market, because the euro fell slightly to 1.0807 dollars, in a context of caution before American announcements.

The rise of the day is therefore not the reflection of a frank enthusiasm, but rather that of a tactical positioning in front of a European central bank likely to soften its policy, when the American economy gives signs of critical slowdown.

An advertisement of Trump that could make the building wobble

The relative optimism observed on the markets hides a deeper concern linked to American trade policy. President Donald Trump is scheduled to speak this Wednesday. The latter would consider imposing a 20 % increase in customs duties on almost all of the American imports.

This measure would mark a significant escalation in its nationalist economic program. “Trump applies his program strongly, without worrying about the disturbances of the financial markets”, summary Alexandre Hezez, strategist at Banque Richelieu. The latter adds that “its round trips reduce the confidence of economic actors and constitute central banks to adapt their strategy”.

The American economic situation aggravates these tensions. The ISM Manufacturer index, published Tuesday, fell back into a contraction zone, which illustrated a deterioration in industrial activity.

In parallel, companies report a surge in input prices, which have been reaching a peak since June 2022, which could be amplified by a more aggressive pricing policy.

Trump, faced with a short majority in the House of Representatives, seeks to “cut massively in expenses” and “demonstrate the positive effects of his policy for American households”, even “create a strong short -term degradation”, according to Alexandre Hezez.

This assumed positioning could place the Fed in a delicate situation and permanently impact global economic stability.

If the measures announced materialize, the repercussions could be multiple. At the commercial level, they may cause reprisals, to exacerbate tensions with China or the European Union, and to supply imported inflation. In terms of markets, they could further erode confidence and switch investors to withdrawal assets such as gold, sovereign bonds … or cryptos.