What if the threshold of $ 850 billion held by the US Treasury became the new catalyst on the crypto market? Arthur Hayes, co -founder of Bitmex, believes that once the general account of the US Treasury (TGA) filled with $ 850 billion, cryptos will enter a continuous increase phase. This position comes when the Fed has just reduced its rates, reviving the debates on the impact of American monetary policies on the dynamics of Bitcoin and Altcoins.
In short
- Arthur Hayes says that the crypto increases continuously when the US treasury reach $ 850 billion in its general account.
- The TGA already has more than 807 billion $, a level close to the objective set by Janet Yellen.
- According to Hayes, this accumulation acts as a “pump” which temporarily deprives liquidity markets before reinjecting it.
- Analysts like André Dragosch dispute this vision and judge the correlation between liquidity and deceptive bitcoin.
Arthur Hayes relies on a key threshold of the American Treasury
While some investors predict an imminent fall in the Crypto market, Arthur Hayes has identified the US Treasury as a central player for the future market dynamic in a post published on September 20.
According to him, the accumulation of liquidity in the General Treasury Account (TGA) acts as a critical indicator for risky assets, including the crypto.
- Hayes estimates that $ 850 billion in the TGA would mark the trigger: “Once this level is reached, the Crypto market will only have one direction: a continuous increase”he wrote;
- The TGA already has more than $ 807 billion, quickly approaching the objective set by Janet Yellen;
- According to him, as long as the treasure absorbs liquidity, “Private markets are deprived of oxygen”. Once the threshold is reached, these flows would be released and could irrigate the financial markets, including Bitcoin.
Hayes summarizes this mechanism as a “Pump” temporarily sucking capital. However, he believes that this accumulation phase is transient and that it will be followed by an influx of liquidity likely to trigger a sustained bullish phase.
The doubts of analysts on correlation
Not all observers share the optimism of Arthur Hayes. André Dragosch, research manager at Bitwise Asset Management, believes that the impact of net liquidity on the price of Bitcoin remains marginal. “The correlation between liquidity and bitcoin is weak and misleading”he declaredcalling for caution in the face of too simplistic conclusions.
These criticisms underline that the evolution of cryptos, in particular Bitcoin, does not depend only on the Fed or the Treasury. Investors' psychology, institutional flows and regulations play an equally important role. The recent volatility episode, which occurred after the announcement of the rate drop, is the illustration. The markets had already anticipated this decision and the reaction was not linear.
Ultimately, Hayes' thesis opens an attractive, but disputed scenario. If the damage of the $ 850 billion threshold on the TGA was to coincide with an upward recovery of Bitcoin and Altcoins, it would not be enough to explain all the dynamics.
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