The Crypto market takes up colors pending the ICC

This Wednesday, the publication of a PPI withdrawn for the month of August immediately rekindled speculation around a drop in rates by the Fed. Bitcoin won 0.5 % per hour, carried by this signal perceived as favorable to a monetary relaxation. As the FOMC approaches, investors now scrutinize each economic indicator, aware that the slightest variation can lead to a market repositioning.

A key indicator that makes the lines move

The price of Bitcoin recorded an increase of 0.5 % shortly after the publication of the Producer Price Index (PPI) of August by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which has revealed An unexpected drop of 0.1 %.

Despite the distrust of the Spot market, this evolution shows a relaxation of inflationary pressure on producers, and therefore a greater room for maneuver for a relaxation of monetary policy. This movement, although modest, reflects the sensitivity of the crypto market to American macroeconomic indicators.

The key elements of this market reaction are as follows:

• A 0.1 % drop in overall PPI in August, a figure below expectations, interpreted as a disinflationist signal;

• The increase of 0.3 % of the PPI Core (excluding food, energy and trade), the strongest increase since March, indicating persistent underlying tensions;

• The BTC at $ 114,000, or +2.3 % over a week, but still -5.7 % over 30 days, proof of a fragile recovery;

• Ethereum also benefits from the PPI effect, with a price up 0.2 %, reaching $ 4,382.10;

• 88 % of investors anticipate a decrease of 25 basic points of the key rate, According to CME Fedwatch Toolagainst 12 % who bet on a reduction of 50 points.

This immediate market reaction shows how the American economic data directly influences the positioning of crypto investors.

If the apparent relaxation of inflation strengthens the hope of a more flexible monetary policy, the increase in the PPI Core recalls that the fight against inflation is far from won. The markets must therefore compose with ambivalent signals, a few days before an important Fed decision.

Market feeling: volatility in sight and the next deadlines

Beyond the immediate price reaction, investors display a more cautious posture when approaching a loaded economic calendar.

The crypto fear & greed index, a feeling barometer on cryptos, went from 70 to a neutral score of 49, marking a clear decline in optimism.

Like the underlines James Toledano, COO of Unity Wallet, “It is the publication of the consumer price index scheduled for tomorrow that could cause turmoil on the markets”. The ICC, expected tomorrow, could indeed tip the scales in one direction or the other, depending on whether it confirms or invalidates the trend observed with the PPI.

In parallel, the prediction markets, like Myriad, show a turnaround: 72 % of users now believe that Bitcoin will be maintained above $ 105,000 until the end of September, against a more pessimistic position the previous week.

This evolution reflects a resumption of confidence, certainly fragile, but very real. Added to this is the attention paid to other indicators to come, in particular the creations of non -agricultural jobs and unemployment figures, which will be scrutinized before the FOMC final decision.

In a context where each macroeconomic data becomes a potential catalyst, the crypto market remains suspended from the Fed arbitrations. If a drop in rate already seems to be largely integrated especially by large banking institutions like Goldman Sachs, any surprise, in one direction or the other, could rekindle volatility.