Strategy could pay its dividends for 30 years even if bitcoin does not start to rise again, according to Michael Saylor. The manager published a new risk simulator to defend his financial model, a few days after a sale of 3,588 BTC intended to strengthen the group’s liquidity.
In brief
- Strategy estimates it can pay its dividends for 30 years without bitcoin rising.
- The model is based on $52.87 billion in crypto reserves and $2.55 billion in dollars.
- The announced equilibrium threshold requires an average increase in bitcoin of 3.33% per year.
Bitcoin: Saylor responds to Wall Street’s doubts
Bitcoin remains the heart of Strategy’s model, but its recent sale of BTC has reignited criticism. The company sold 3,588 bitcoins for approximately $216 million, a transaction that reignited the debate over the sale of BTC. Michael Saylor, however, presents this decision as a management tool, not as an abandonment. Its new risk calculator aims to show that Strategy can fund its obligations without depending on an immediate bitcoin surge.
The message is primarily aimed at analysts and preferred stock holders. Strategy wants to prove that its payouts are based on an organized capital architecture, not a simple permanent bullish bet.
The most spectacular figure comes from the “BTC Years of Dividends” indicator. According to published metrics, Strategy’s crypto reserves are worth approximately $52.87 billion. Added to this is a dollar reserve of 2.55 billion. The simulator estimates that this set could cover 30 years of dividend payments, even if bitcoin stopped rising entirely. This assumption does not mean that the risk disappears. It describes a theoretical capacity to pay from current assets.
Another indicator attracts attention: the “BTC Breakeven ARR”. It suggests that an average increase of 3.33% per year for bitcoin would be sufficient to maintain the service of coupons and dividends without new capital raising. This level seems modest in the face of bitcoin’s volatile history. But it depends on very specific conditions: price of BTC, existing bonds, cost of dividends, level of reserves and Strategy’s ability to manage its sales without weakening confidence.
A solid cover, but not without fragility
Strategy shows approximately $22.18 billion in convertible bond and preferred stock obligations. Faced with this, its asset coverage indicator, called BTC Rating, stands at 2.7x.
This ratio gives Saylor a powerful argument. It shows that bitcoin assets more than cover declared financial liabilities. But Strategy also specifies that these indicators do not constitute an official credit rating and do not replace traditional financial measures.
The main risk remains volatility. If bitcoin falls sharply and sustainably, the hedge may deteriorate. Too much BTC selling could also weigh on the market, especially if investors see it as a change in doctrine.
This is why the monetization of Bitcoin is becoming a sensitive subject. Strategy seeks to use part of its reserves as liquidity leverage, while maintaining its image as the largest institutional defender of BTC.
Strategy turns bitcoin into digital credit
The calculator is part of the Digital Credit Capital Framework announced at the end of June. This approach aims to transform bitcoin reserves into a financing basis for credit products, preferred stocks and bonds.
Saylor wants to shift the narrative. Strategy would no longer just be a company that accumulates bitcoin. It would become a financial infrastructure backed by BTC, capable of generating credit, liquidity and returns for certain investors.
This ambition explains the 30-year formula. It reassures the market by showing that the company thinks in terms of duration, coverage and risk management. But it also makes the model more complex. Investors will therefore need to look beyond the number of BTC held. The cost of dividends, demand for preferred securities, market liquidity and the evolution of bitcoin are now becoming linked. If the price stagnates, Strategy can hold according to its model. If confidence is cracked, the calculations will have to be reread with caution.
Saylor’s promise therefore remains strong, but it does not erase reality. Strategy has a considerable bitcoin hoard and a dollar reserve. She also has financial commitments that require ongoing discipline. The simulator shows a theoretical resistance of 30 years. The market will test this resistance with each correction in the Bitcoin cycle.
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