Stock market: Ride the records, but beware of elections!

Stock markets have had an impressive first half of 2024, breaking record after record. However, uncertainty looms as crucial elections approach in France and the United States, raising questions about the economic future. Stock market investors should remain vigilant for potential political shocks that could disrupt these remarkable gains.

Stock market, growth and electoral uncertainties

In 2024, the stock market growth has been dazzling. Clues like The US S&P 500 has surpassed its peak more than 30 times.

This dynamic is explained by the economic resilienceparticularly in the United States, and robust external demand in Europe, helped by unexpected Chinese growthexplain Capital.

THE U.S. unemployment rates remain historically low at 4% reflecting a strong economy despite high interest rates.

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However, Upcoming elections in France and the United States introduce elements of uncertainty.

In France, political surprises, such as the dissolution of the National Assembly, have already shown their capacity to shake the CAC 40.

In the USA, 2024 presidential election could change economic and regulatory policiescreating risks for stock market investors.

Persistent inflation and international conflicts, notably in Ukraine and Gaza, add an additional layer of potential volatility.

Artificial intelligence and stock market dynamics

L'artificial intelligence (AI) keep playing a central role in the performance of stock marketsTechnology companies, especially those specializing in AI, have seen their valuations explode.

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Nvidia, the leader in chips for generative AI, briefly surpassed Apple and Microsoft in market capitalization. The tech giants, nicknamed the “Magnificent Seven”, have contributed greatly to the rise in the S&P 500with dramatic increases for Nvidia, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet.

However, this concentration in a single sector raises questions. If massive investments in AI do not translate into sufficient profitabilitystock market dynamics could suffer.

Potential regulations by competition authorities could also weigh on these companies.

At the same time, assets like bitcoin (BTC), gold, and commodities like Copper and cocoa hit record highsdemonstrating the diversity of opportunities but also of risks on the financial markets.

Faced with these multiple challenges and opportunities, stock market investors must navigate with caution, keeping an eye on upcoming political and economic developments.

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