Financial markets sometimes reserve paradoxes. While Bitcoin records a new flight and crosses the symbolic bar of 100,000 dollars, an element surprises: the absence of private investors. After the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the market for future Bitcoin experienced a rapid rise, with an increase of $ 1.2 billion in just 24 hours. However, instead of a widespread enthusiasm, the data reveals a clear withdrawal of small investors, whose activity has dropped by 50 % since November 2024. This phenomenon highlights a profound transformation of the market, where financial institutions take over from individuals. Should we see a simple cyclical adjustment or a lasting change in the evolution of Bitcoin?
Institutions propel Bitcoin term contracts
The meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rekindled the speculative interest around Bitcoin, which causes a massive influx of capital on the market for future BTC. In just 24 hours, Open Interest, which measures the total positions open to term contracts, jumped $ 1.2 billion, recording an increase of 8 % to a summit at $ 65 billion. This sudden increase reflects a marked return of institutional investors, who have strengthened their long positions in response to the economic signals issued by the American Federal Reserve.
In this bullish context, Bitcoin has exceeded $ 106,500, which marks a break with the consolidation phase of the past few weeks. In parallel, the aggregated financing rate has increased, which confirms a clear domination of buyers in the derivative market. However, despite this rise in institutional power, private investors remain behind. According to Glassnode datathe volume of transactions that come from portfolios that have less than 0.1 BTC has dropped 48 % since November 2024. This disaffection has been surprising, especially since the previous bitcoin bitcoin cycles were always accompanied by a boost of interest to the general public. This observation is shared by Quinten Francois, a recognized crypto commentator, who underlines In a publication on the social network X (ex Twitter) on January 26, 2025 that “despite a bitcoin evolving above 100,000 dollars, the interest of private investors has reached its lowest level for three years”. The current boom in Bitcoin therefore seems to be carried by new engines, where the institutional dynamics gradually supplant the activity of individuals.
Why are private investors sulking the market?
This decline in the activity of private investors is a major change in the dynamics of the Bitcoin market. Several factors can explain this phenomenon, starting through the unit (“unit bias”). This psychological principle pushes many new investors to favor the purchase of assets in whole units rather than fractions. With a bitcoin that exceeds $ 100,000, some believe that its price is now out of reach. In search of opportunities perceived as more accessible, they turn to cheaper altcoins, often seduced by valuation predictions disconnected from the realities of the market.
At the same time, the boom in Bitcoin Etf in cash redistributes investment flows. Between November 2024 and January 2025, the total capitalization of ETF BTC jumped from $ 125 billion to $ 125 billion, Or an increase of 78 %, according to Coinglass. This development changes the way in which investors are exposed to bitcoin, and promotes regulated financial products to the detriment of direct purchases on exchanges. Consequently, a massive movement of funds has been observed, which reduces BTC sales held on platforms from 3.1 million to 2.7 million units in the space of seven months. This phenomenon reflects a sliding of the market towards a more marked institutional adoption, where the ETFs and centralized childcare solutions take precedence over self-distention.
Bitcoin is now based more on institutional flows than on the enthusiasm of private investors. This structural development could reshape its market in depth. On the one hand, the increased presence of institutions could reduce volatility, these actors favoring long -term investment strategies. On the other hand, a return of individuals remains possible, in particular in the event of a price correction or a renewed interest in the direct purchase of BTC. The future of the market will therefore depend on the evolution of global feeling, the attractiveness of Bitcoin in the face of new entrants and the place that ETF will continue to occupy and other institutional vehicles. If this trend is confirmed, the mother crypto could enter a maturation phase, where speculation gradually gives way to a more institutionalized and regulated adoption.
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