Shiba Inu (SHIB) finished the last five days in negative territory, but looking only at price doesn't tell the whole story. Distribution of the token remains heavily concentrated on exchanges, and recent activity suggests that holders are preparing to sell rather than accumulate. These conditions may weigh on market sentiment and leave SHIB exposed to further declines.
In brief
- Exchange reserves for SHIB have exceeded 82.5 trillion, signaling that holders are preparing to sell.
- Positive net flows on exchanges show that more tokens are arriving on trading platforms than are being withdrawn.
Rising SHIB reserves indicate preparation for sale
Shiba Inu presence on exchanges has increased, with reserves now above 82.5 trillion SHIB, up from around 81 trillion earlier in the year. At the same time, net flows on exchanges have become positive, meaning that more tokens are being sent to exchanges than are being withdrawn. This combination of rising reserves and net inflows suggests that holders are preparing to sell rather than accumulate.
This change in behavior coincided with a brief stint of SHIB above $0.000009near its highest level of the year, before giving up part of its gains since the start of the year, reflecting a market dominated by preparation for sale.
SHIB traders withdraw while whales remain active
The derivatives market adds another layer to the cautious view and reflects broader trends in trader behavior:
- Trading volume on SHIB derivatives fell by approximately 14% in the last 24 hours.
- Open interest also fell by around 2%.
- The token's price fell approximately 2% over the same period, reflecting declining confidence and limited appetite for leveraged positions.
Despite this, some signs of support are visible. Santiment data indicates a 111% increase in whale transactionsshowing increased activity among large holders. Additionally, CryptoQuant reports that SHIB's number of daily active addresses has been steadily increasing since the start of the year, remaining consistently above 3,000. This demonstrates continued on-chain engagement even amid recent price weakness.
Technical Outlook Indicates Range Trading
From a technical perspective, Shiba Inu is currently consolidating after several months of downward pressure. After a prolonged downtrend since September, the token showed a brief rebound in the first days of this year, but this rally lacked strong momentum and did not confirm a trend reversal.
On the daily chart, SHIB is moving within a clearly defined rectangular range, showing a temporary balance between buyers and sellers. Price has encountered resistance near the top of this range, while the middle zone – aligned with the 20-day moving average and middle Bollinger band – offers support, keeping the market neutral.
Technical indicators support this cautious view. The RSI is around 58, reflecting moderate bullish momentum but without clear dominance. Bollinger bands remain moderately wide after the recent peak, signaling continued volatility rather than low activity.
Unless SHIB decisively breaks through the top of the consolidation range (0.0000095) with strong volume, the most likely scenario remains a sideways consolidation or a pullback towards the lower end of the range (0.0000080). A confirmed breakout would be necessary to change the market structure and reopen the path to a broader recovery.
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