The year 2024 marks a major change for the French real estate market. Indeed, the dynamics that have structured this sector for decades are gradually disappearing, giving way to profound changes. The massive decline in transactions, the timid recovery in real estate purchasing power and the growing importance of energy criteria are reshaping the priorities of buyers and sellers. These transformations go beyond the figures: they reflect the cumulative impacts of the crisis that began in 2022 and economic uncertainties. Through its 2024 Real Estate Report, the Notaries of France shed light on these contrasting developments. Their analysis goes beyond simple observation. It explores short-term perspectives, and opens avenues for a possible recovery in 2025. These projections shed light on the immediate issues, but also the adaptations necessary to cope with a market in full transformation.
An unprecedented decline in transactions
The figures revealed by the 2024 Real Estate Report of the Notaries of France provide a clear conclusion. Indeed, the volume of real estate transactions fell to 750,000 sales for the year, which represents a drop of 17% compared to 935,000 sales in 2023. This decline is mainly explained by the combination of two major factors : the continued rise in interest rates, which weighs heavily on the borrowing capacity of households, and an economic climate marked by high uncertainty. Such unfavorable conditions slow down purchasing decisions and disrupt the habits of a market in full adjustment.
Comparison with previous years further underlines the extent of this contraction. In 2021, the market reached a historic peak with 1.2 million transactions, before the first signs of slowdown appeared in the summer of 2022. “This drop in transactions reflects a growing mistrust in the face of an unstable economic context” , indicate the Notaries of France, who provide information on the prolonged effects of this crisis.
However, all is not lost. According to experts, certain indicators suggest a gradual stabilization at the end of 2024. Real estate prices are beginning a phase of moderation, while a renewed confidence is timidly felt among households. This trend could lay the foundations for a recovery for 2025, provided that the economic and political environment stabilizes. “If these trends are confirmed, 2025 could mark a new lease of life for the market,” estimate notaries. This optimistic scenario is, however, based on cautious assumptions, which suggests opportunities, but also challenges for players in the sector.
A changing market: new dynamics and priorities
The contraction in the real estate market is nevertheless accompanied by positive signs regarding the purchasing power of households. In September 2024, they had increased financing capacity, which allowed them to acquire an old apartment of 55 m² or a house of 92 m², an increase of 1 m² and 3 m² respectively compared to 2023. This improvement is the result of a combination of favorable factors, notably a slight drop in prices combined with a stabilization of interest rates. However, notaries emphasize that this recovery remains fragile. Thus, any imbalance in the economic context could wipe out these recent gains and slow down access to property again.
At the same time, buyers' priorities are changing, particularly due to growing environmental concerns. The energy performance of housing has now become a key criterion in purchasing decisions. Thus, energy-efficient goods, classified A and B, saw their share increase by 2 points, or 8% of transactions. At the same time, energy-intensive housing, classified F and G, recorded a significant decline, representing 13% of sales compared to 17% in 2023. This development reflects a collective awareness of the economic and ecological benefits associated with housing. better insulated and more durable.
Notaries also anticipate that public incentives, such as subsidies or tax breaks, will play a central role in accelerating this transition to more environmentally friendly real estate. These measures could encourage households to favor sustainable housing, but also contribute to the enhancement of their real estate assets in the long term. As energy criteria become essential, they could fundamentally reshape buyers' expectations and sellers' strategies for years to come.
The year 2025 could constitute a decisive turning point for the French real estate market. A more stable political and economic context, associated with public policies that support accessibility to building land and the energy transition, could give new impetus to the sector. However, major challenges persist. The aging of the housing stock, regional disparities and the need to strengthen the confidence of households and investors remain key challenges. These transformations require a balanced approach, where adaptation and innovation will be essential to build a market capable of meeting expectations for stability and sustainability.
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