Polymarket US approaches $15 billion in monthly volumes

Polymarket US reached $14.77 billion in notional volume in October 2026, up from $4.04 billion in June, according to TickerTracker. This increase of around 266% comes mainly from sports and combined betting, products that several American states are contesting in court.

What does Polymarket US’ $14.77 billion volume measure?

THE notional volume counts each contract at its maximum payout value. A contract purchased for 10 cents which pays 1 dollar if successful therefore weighs 1 dollar in the total. The amounts actually paid by traders are significantly lower, specifies FinanceFeeds.

Also relying on data provided by TickerTracker, CNBC rounds to more than $14.5 billion for October 2026. The figure therefore measures activity on Polymarket US, and not money bet. These products obviously remain debated in Europe. Indeed, the ESMA equates predictive markets with binary options, prohibited to individuals since 2018.

A record volume also doesn’t tell if traders are winning. Galaxy estimates that 69.2% of individual accounts on Polymarket’s international platform are losers, with a median loss of around $3. An April analysis gave 84.1% using another method. However, these studies do not relate to Polymarket US.

Combined betting and sports on Polymarket US: almost 90% of October volume

Combination contracts, which combine several predictions into a single bet, generated $8.6 billion. This represents 58.2% of the month’s volume. Sports contracts added $4.57 billion: or 31%. Together they therefore represent approximately 89% of the total. According to CNBChandsets even exceeded 70% of the volume on the Polymarket US platform on Sunday, November 8.

The World Cup played a major role. Indeed, football contracts generated $1.81 billion in Junecompared to 85.4 million in May. Added to this is the start of the NFL season in September.

As for politics, it remains marginal. The proof: electoral contracts generated 108.2 million dollars over the first ten days of November, compared to 16.6 million for all of September. Despite this progress, the electoral contracts therefore represent only 2.2% of Polymarket US volume over the first ten days of November. Polymarket has also opened dozens of investigations into suspicious electoral bets.

Annualized income of $1.8 billion, but a contested legal framework

Polymarket US indicated on November 10 that its annualized revenue exceeded $1.8 billioncompared to more than a billion in June. This figure, however, reflects the current pace, and not revenues for a completed financial year.

The company launched a new round of around $1 billion based on a valuation of $21 billion. However, the operation is not announced as finalized, with around 300 million expected from 1789 Capital.

At the same time, the CFTC (the American derivatives regulator) is conducting a broad survey on Polymarket. It covers:

• the advertising practices of the prediction market platform;
• compliance with a 2022 agreement that barred U.S. residents from accessing its international platform.

However, no infringement has been established at this stage.

That’s not all! New York State also sued Polymarket in September for allegedly operating unlicensed gambling. Company invokes CFTC’s exclusive authority in federal court. In October, the CFTC initiated procedures against ten States. New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to decide a similar dispute over Kalshi.

In any case, Polymarket US has more than tripled its volume in four months. Its growth nevertheless depends on contested combined and sports products. To follow: the CFTC investigation, the New York procedure, the New Jersey case before the Supreme Court and the holding of the activity outside major sporting events.