Polymarket is often seen as a reflection of public opinion and the probability of events. However, ahead of this year's Nobel Peace Prize announcement, it sparked suspicion after a sudden change in betting odds suggested someone could have known the outcome in advance.
In brief
- Polymarket odds jumped for Maria Corina Machado hours before the Nobel announcement, sparking suspicion.
- Machado's chances rose from about 3.75 percent to more than 70 percent, outpacing other primary candidates.
- Norwegian authorities are now investigating whether confidential information was obtained illegally.
Unusual Polymarket Bets Point to Early Nobel Clues
Hours before the official announcement, Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, initially seen as least likely to win, saw her Polymarket ratings jump from around 3.75% to 72.8% in less than two hours. The surge propelled her ahead of Yulia Navalnaya and Donald Trump, who previously led the market.
This rapid rise in betting, occurring well before the public revelation, raised concerns about possible insider influence and preceded Machado's confirmation as a Nobel Peace Prize laureate.
As the pressure mounted, professional bettor Fhantom Bets arranged an interview on X Space with the alleged insider behind the Nobel Peace Prize bets. Although no direct evidence has emerged from this exchange, several points have attracted attention. According to Fantom's analysis, the key information may not have come from an internal leak but from details already visible on the Nobel website before the announcement.
It turns out that the answer could be right in front of us — on the Nobel site itself.
Early clues and web scraping
The alleged insider made a few key points, emphasizing the potential of web scraping, noting that the information was available to everyone, and suggesting that “you can force access to a lot of things. »
One notable clue was an image of Maria Corina Machado that reportedly appeared in the downloads folder of the Nobel site before the announcement. The file's last modified timestamp showed 07:18 GMT on October 10, more than an hour before the Nobel committee's public statement. This indicated that the site had already been updated with content identifying Machado as a peace prize winner.
Phantom Bets explained:
It's impressive to see that just hours before the official announcement, there was definitely solid evidence that Machado was the winner. There are still some unanswered questions. Unfortunately, the rest is… speculative.
Suspicious earnings trigger Nobel investigation
According to The Guardian, a trader would have earned over $65,000 thanks to the bet, while another account created on the same day would also have benefited from the bets. These details reinforce the suspicion that the betting activity was based on information obtained before the official announcement.
The unusual betting activity has now attracted the attention of Norwegian authorities, who are investigating possible leaks from the tight-lipped Nobel committee. Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Nobel Institute, said the organization appeared to have been targeted by a criminal actor seeking to profit from confidential information about the prize.
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