Metaplanet: the Bitcoin strategy faced with an unprecedented funding crisis

The Japanese company Metaplanet, which holds one of the largest Bitcoin business reserves in the world, sees its strategy of accumulation threatened by the collapse of its stock market course. With a fall of 54 % since June, the company must reinvent its financing mechanism to continue its Crypto ambitions.

Metaplanet's Bitcoin strategy threatened by a stock market collapse

Since mid-June, the Metaplanet action has plunged 54 %, while Bitcoin paradoxically increased by the same period. This divergence highlights the weaknesses of the company's financing model.

So far, its engine was based on a virtuous circle: the increase in the course of action encouraged Evo Fund, the main investor, to exercise its subscription vouchers at attractive levels, thus injecting fresh capital intended for the purchase of new bitcoins.

But Mechanics have stopped. Simon Gerovich, former trader of Goldman Sachs and today at the head of Metaplanet, sees his “steering wheel of inertia” losing his vigor.

With a sharp decline course, Evo Fund's subscription vouchers are no longer of economic interest, cutting access to this key liquidity source. The company even had to temporarily suspend the exercise of these instruments, between September 3 and 30, a sign of the severity of the situation.

However, Metaplanet displays a considerable war treasure: 18,991 BTC, valued at around 2.1 billion dollars. A stock that classifies it in the world in the world of public holders of cryptos, according to Bitcointreasuries.net.

But behind this impressive assessment hides a more disturbing reality: Metaplanet's “Bitcoin Bitcoin” (the gap between its market capitalization and the value of its digital reserves) has contracted strongly.

As Eric Benoit de Natixis points out, this premium is the real spine of the strategy. In free fall, from more than 8x in June to only 2x today, it exposes shareholders to an increased risk of dilution. Without this overvaluation, Metaplanet's ability to raise funds Without weakening its shareholder base is directly compromised.

Strategic pivot, foreign markets as a salvation board

Faced with the impasse, Metaplanet announced on Wednesday its intention to raise 130.3 billion yen ($ 880 million) via a public offer of actions on the foreign markets, thus breaking with its domestic financing model.

The calendar accelerates: as of Monday, the shareholders will vote on the issue of 555 million privileged actions, a extremely rare instrument in Japan. This device could bring up to 555 billion yen ($ 3.7 billion), offering a credible alternative to the failure of subscription vouchers.

For Simon Gerovich, these actions constitute a “defensive mechanism”: they make it possible to inject capital without diluting ordinary shareholders, even in the event of a new drop in the title.

Offering up to 6 % of annual dividends and capped at 25 % of the company's bitcoin assets, they particularly aim at Japanese investors looking for yield in a context of historically low rate.

In parallel, Metaplanet gains in institutional stature. Reclassified from Small-Cap to Mid-Cap during the semi-annual journal of FTSE Russell, the company joined the FTSE Japan index, an advance which increases its visibility with international funds.

A race against the clock towards the 210,000 BTC

Despite the turbulence, Metaplanet's ambition remains intact. The company aims 100,000 BTC by the end of 2025 and 210,000 BTC by 2027, or more than 1 % of the total offer in circulation. A frantic race that requires colossal financial means and a flawless strategic discipline.

For Simon Gerovich, the bet is based on a strong conviction: Bitcoin represents the best protection against the depreciation of Yen and structural inflation.

In a Japan marked by decades of unconventional monetary policies, this vision finds a particular echo with investors wishing to expose themselves to a rare asset and disconnected from traditional dynamics.

The strategy is inspired by the microstrategy model, but adapted to the Japanese context. Metaplanet is not limited to accumulating bitcoins. The company plans to build a real ecosystem around its digital cash, in particular via credit instruments backed by BTC, intended to meet domestic demand for fixed income products.

This funding crisis acts as a maturity test. Metaplanet must prove its capacity to diversify its sources of capital while continuing its accumulation. The success of this transition will say if the “Japanese model” of Bitcoin cash can impose itself in the face of the vagaries of the classic financial markets.