Is Bitcoin being sold off? Bitwise estimates it should be worth $270,000!

Gold is breaking records, global liquidity is exploding, but bitcoin is still lagging behind. This divergence raises the question: why does the flagship crypto asset, supposed to protect against monetary dilution, not react? A report from Bitwise reveals an unprecedented valuation gap between BTC and money supply growth. Market error or major opportunity? The lines could move, and faster than we think.

Bitcoin facing historic undervaluation according to Bitwise

In its latest macroeconomic report dedicated to bitcoin, asset manager Bitwise reveals a major undervaluation of the asset in the face of the global monetary environment.

“Bitcoin underperforms the overall money supply by 66%, implying a fair value close to $270,000”, explain the report, based on a cointegration model between BTC and the global monetary aggregate M2, today estimated at $137,000 billion. This discrepancy would mark one of the largest gaps ever observed between the price of BTC and macroeconomic fundamentals.

Bitwise puts this situation into perspective with a series of economic signals which, according to the report, reinforce the thesis of a largely underpriced BTC. Here are some the key elements :

• 66% undervaluation of BTC compared to the growth of the overall money supply, according to their model;
• The estimated fair value: $270,000, compared to a market price well below $100,000 currently;
• Expanding global liquidity: more than 320 rate cuts in two years around the world;
• The end of the US Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) program on 1^er December ;
• A $110 billion stimulus in Japan, a resumption of quantitative easing in Canada, and a $1.4 trillion budget plan in China.

According to Bitwise, the Bitcoin market's lack of reaction to these factors reflects an asymmetric opportunity rarely seen in the asset's recent history. The current gap between its price and its theoretical liquidity anchor would represent an upside potential of +194%, if bitcoin were to realign with the implied levels derived from the money supply.

“BTC is historically the most sensitive barometer to monetary dilution, due to its absolute scarcity”recalls the report.

When gold captures the flows

From a complementary perspective, some analysts note that gold has, this year, absorbed most of the flows linked to fear of monetary dilution, to the detriment of bitcoin.

According to Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macroeconomics at Fidelity, “Bitcoin’s current trend pattern is lagging gold in both momentum and Sharpe ratio, placing the two assets at opposite extremes”.

This last indicator, which measures risk-adjusted return, clearly shows an outperformance of gold compared to bitcoin, in this phase of the monetary cycle. Timmer is not talking about an imminent reversal, but mentions a possible mean reversion pattern, suggesting that this divergence could reverse.

Despite this relative underperformance, Timmer remains cautious about the long-term reading. He claims that bitcoin “remains broadly aligned with its long-term power-law adoption curve”while emphasizing that its returns become less explosive as the asset matures.

He also compares it to “a precocious younger brother of gold, in full maturity”. This metaphor illustrates the current perception: an asset that retains its fundamentals, but whose market cycles are more complex, less impulsive, and perhaps more institutionalized.

Grayscale predicts highs for bitcoin as early as 2026. It remains to be seen whether the market will confirm this scenario, or whether it will prolong this wait-and-see cycle. Between perceived undervaluation and persistent uncertainty, BTC remains at a crossroads.