Historical holders of Bitcoin would slow down its growth

While Bitcoin ETFs attract massive institutional inflows and macroeconomic conditions argue for a rebound in risky assets, the price remains surprisingly frozen below $90,000. This blockage, out of step with the ambient bullish signals, calls into question invisible forces which are restricting its progress. Between return strategy and sophisticated arbitrage, a more discreet mechanism seems to weigh on the market, at a time when investors are expecting new momentum.

An invisible, but real, selling pressure

According to market analyst Jeff Park, some of the oldest bitcoin holders, nicknamed the “OG”help to slow down the progression of the price of BTC by adopting a strategy well known in the world of derivative products: the sale of covered call options.

This technique allows them to generate passive income by selling call options on their Bitcoin holdings, which they have held for over ten years. “When you already have the inventory of bitcoin that you have held for over ten years and you sell call options on it, only the sale of these adds delta to the market, and this direction is negative”, asserts Jeff Park.

Here is the main elements of this mechanism which acts as a brake on the price of crypto:

• THE “OG” sell call options on the BTC they already hold, which allows them to pocket an immediate premium without parting with their tokens, unless the price exceeds the strike;

• Liquidity providers who buy these options must hedge by selling spot bitcoin to limit their exposure;

• These spot sales create artificial downward pressure on the price, even in the presence of strong buyer demand;

• The bitcoin used for these strategies does not come from recent purchases, because it therefore does not represent any injection of new capital into the market;

• Covered calls become a source of negative delta, according to Park, meaning the entire market is experiencing structural selling influence.

This phenomenon, although subtle to the uninitiated, partly explains why bitcoin is struggling to take off despite the growing enthusiasm of institutional investors. Clearly, OGs optimize their short-term gains to the detriment of medium-term upward momentum.

Growing decorrelation and tensions with traditional flows

While technology stocks continue to set all-time highs, bitcoin seems to have lost momentum.

Since the second half of the year, analysts have noted a clear decorrelation between BTC and the equity markets, an unusual phenomenon as the two moved in tandem in previous cycles.

In this context, the inaction of BTC is surprising, especially given the strength of investment flows via ETFs. Despite strong demand on BlackRock's IBIT, prices remain contained. This anomaly is all the more striking as the volatility curves observed on ETFs now differ significantly from those of crypto derivatives platforms like Deribit.

Several hypotheses emerge to explain this inertia. Some analysts remain optimistic. They believe that the continuation of the cycle of rate cuts by the Fed could inject a new wave of liquidity favorable to risky assets, from which bitcoin would take full advantage.

According to data from the CME Group (FedWatch tool), 24.4% of traders also anticipate a new rate cut from January 2026. However, other voices are more cautious, even skeptical. For these experts, the bull run may already be behind us, and a relapse towards $76,000 cannot be ruled out.

Bitcoin collapses after false hope of rebound, revealing the limits of a market under pressure. Despite the optimism generated by inflows, the defensive strategies of certain players continue to neutralize the upward dynamic. The expected recovery will now have to deal with more structural resistance.