Here is why Bitcoin could fly or collapse on Wednesday

Bitcoin is about to live a decisive week. Between the Fed meeting, the technical battle around $ 117,000 and the insatiable appetite of the institutional, the volatility levers are not lacking. The crypto market holds its breath: the BTC could experience a spectacular flight or a brutal correction. It remains to be seen what direction will take this time the digital locomotive, while the contradictory signals accumulate and that each camp refines its bets.

Fed in the center of the game: Fire injection or cold shower?

This Wednesday, September 17, the Federal Reserve will hold its eagerly awaited meeting. The markets bet almost unanimously on a first drop in rates of 0.25 %, some evoking 0.5 %. The situation is rare: since 1996, only three years have seen a drop in rates while Wall Street has been playing in its records.

For crypto holders, the message is clear: more liquidity means more fuel for risky assets. As The Kobeissi Letter reminds us: ” There will be more short -term volatility, but long -term asset holders will party. Why do we think that? Because drops in rate arrive in a context of increasing inflation and AI revolution, which only adds fuel to fire ».

The bet is simple: if the market perceives this gesture as support for the economy, the BTC could fly away. But if the announcement is interpreted as a panic reaction to employment, the correction could be severe.

$ 117,000: glass wall or springboard for Bitcoin?

In parallel with the macro calendar, the Crypto market observes a critical technical threshold: $ 117,000. For several days, the BTC has failed to cross this barrier, confirmed by the order books where the sales offer accumulates.

Crypto traders are increasing warnings. Crypto tony (@cryptony__) wrote : ” We hit $ 117,000 at the door. We have to go beyond this level to continue the next bullish leg ».

For his part, Ted Pillows (@tedpillows) was more pessimistic: ” The BTC was rejected from the area between 117,000 and $ 117,200. This is the only key level that Bitcoin must win back now. If the BTC does not succeed, the chances of a correction to $ 113,500 or less will increase ».

Same tone in Crillévo (@crypnuvo)which estimates that Monday and Tuesday will be calm, but that Wednesday will bring “explosive volatility”. According to him, the BTC could fall around $ 112,000 before leaving. In other words, $ 117,000 is not just a figure: this is the battlefield where the next market management will be played.

Whales, ETF and rarity: fuel of institutional

Behind these technical movements, a more powerful engine is active: institutions. Last week, the Bitcoin Spot ETF recorded net inputs of $ 2.3 billion, absorbing up to 5,900 BTC in a single day. This represents almost nine times the mined offer over the same period.

On Binance, the Bitcoin rarity index has jumped for the first time since June. According to cryptocurrency, this indicator climbs When the purchase power exceeds the available offeras if buyers rushed to buy BTC. This type of peak is generally associated with the arrival of a new positive or a sudden influx of capital.

Ryan Lee, analyst in Bitget, insists on the central role of the BTC in the face of the rise of Ethereum:

The ETH/BTC ratio remaining under 0.05 for more than a year, even though Ethereum has reached records and attracts billions via ETF flows, underlines the sustainable position of bitcoin as the ultimate value reserve of the crypto market. In August alone, more than $ 4 billion flocked to ETHEREUM, but this relative sub-performance reflects the stronger attraction of bitcoin to conservative investors in an uncertain macro context.

Some key figures to measure the current tension:

• $ 117,000: decisive technical threshold rejected several times;
• $ 2.3 billion: weekly entries in Bitcoin Spot ETFs;
• 5,900 BTC: Institutional purchasing record in a single day;
• Binance rarity index: First peak since June, a sign of accumulation possible.

Investing in Bitcoin has not been disappointing lately. According to recent data, 92 % of holders are currently in profit. This figure reflects the vigor of the market and ambient optimism, even if several signals of weakness are looming. Historically, this level of profitability has preceded both prolonged flights and violent corrections.