France: the budget deficit drops to 100.4 billion at the end of June

August is there, and with him his share of cold sweats. While temperatures climb, the numbers fall. France is in full budgetary turbulence, between European pressure, internal arbitrations and increasing social tension. However, a figure acts as a lull: the state’s budget deficit is 100.4 billion euros at the end of June. A slight improvement compared to the previous year. But should we really rejoice? If some indicators seem to boost the economy, the situation remains more tense than it seems. Overview of a budgetary landscape overheating.

A symbolic drop that does not say everything

The Bayrou government is trying to blow. After two exercises off the nails, France has a reduced deficit of 3 billion euros compared to June 2024. From 103.47 to 100.4 billion euros : apparently improvement. Yet, This decline Puts mainly on a cyclical boost.

The end of the price shield and the increase in certain taxes artificially doped the tax revenues. These reach 163.3 billion euros (+7 billion)drawn by corporate tax and income tax.

But in detail, the mechanics remain seized. Net expenses still reach 262.1 billion euros. And the charge of public debt weighs more than ever: +6 % in one year. Same thing for the wage bill, up 2.4 %. Is added another black hole: The special Treasury accounts, degraded by 5.9 billion eurosin particular because of the deferred reimbursements linked to the health crisis.

In short, the curve drops, but the slope remains stiff. And economists warn: without structural reforms, the best will not last.

An economy doped at exceptional revenues

When the accounts are bad, we squeeze the bolts. Since February, The State has frozen or canceled 17 billion euros in credits. Objective: keep European commitments and reassure markets. On the revenue side, the growth of +4.2 % is more than one tax context than an economic recovery. The stopping of energy aid has strengthened the return, but it is a rustine, not a solution.

Consumption does not follow. Savings climb, VAT stagnates. Bercy is concerned about it in silence, because an economy that no longer buys is an economy that slows down. An equation that the Banque de France knows well.

On the political field, the climate remains flammable. THE 40 billion savings to find for 2026 Already tremble the assembly. On the left and the far right, the threats of censorship are multiplying. Because each euro saved is likely to be an amputated public service, a planed aid, a frozen position.

And during this time, Brussels watches over the grain, recalling the 3 % deficit rule compared to GDP. A CAP that France is struggling to aim.

France, Economy and credibility: the equation with several unknowns

With this slight drop in deficit, the government is trying to regain control. But the road is strewn with pitfalls. Standard & Poor's already lowered France's note in May 2024, alerting to ” The lack of sustainable tax consolidation ». And the Court of Auditors insists: without in -depth reform, the debt could compromise long -term economic stability.

In the fall, the 2026 finance bill promises to be explosive. Bayrou plays big: its majority remains fragile, and the country shows signs of weariness in the face.

Economic benchmarks to remember:

• The deficit reaches € 100.4 billion at the end of June (vs € 103.5 billion in 2024);
• Tax revenue increases by € 7 billion thanks to stopping the price shield;
• The debt burden increases by 6 %, the payroll by 2.4 %;
• Special accounts accuse a hole of € 20.8 billion, or € 5.9 billion more than in 2024.

While France is trying to regain a semblance of balance, looks also turn to the United States. There, galloping inflation and abyssal debt are debated. For investor Ray Dalio, the ramparts are no longer to be found on the side of public policies: gold and bitcoin must be part of any wallet seeking to survive inflation and massive debt. A lesson that could well go through the Atlantic.