May could change everything for Bitcoin. While the threat of a global recession is flat and tensions between the United States and China are intensifying, the market holds its breath. A trade agreement could trigger a new Bull Run … but a failure could plunge the BTC into the red.
In short
- Bitcoin is threatened by a possible global recession, scheduled for this summer.
- Price negotiations between the United States and China in May are crucial to avoid a fall in bitcoin.
- In case of agreement between Beijing and Washington, Bitcoin could bounce back; Otherwise, two -digit losses are possible.
Bitcoin under pressure: a recession hovers in May
While Bitcoin tries $ 97,000 and reaches 64.85 % domination, winds are looming on the horizon: the recession. Indeed, a huge recession could strike the BTC this summer, fueled by a sudden fall in the prospects for business profits, the most marked since 2020. In this context, the evolution of trade relations between the United States and China becomes crucial for investors.
The resumption of discussions on customs tariffs between Beijing and Washington could strongly influence the course of Bitcoin. To this end, the end of exemptions on certain Chinese imports (car parts, small packages under 800 dollars) could worsen trade tensions. And in the absence of agreement in May, Bitcoin could record two -digit losses.
However, this extreme scenario remains unlikely. The two powers have no economic interest in slowing down their exchanges. An agreement, or at least a compromise around a reciprocal rate of 10 %, seems more realistic.
Threat or opportunity?
Despite these Risks of recessionsome experts see a bullish potential. Bitcoin could first correct with risky assets, before bouncing as in 2020. In a context of stagflation, the queen crypto could even attract investors in search of inflation protection, like gold.
However, its strong current correlation with technological actions makes the prospects more vague. As well as the systemic risks linked to a global economic slowdown, which could heavily penalize speculative assets, including Bitcoin.
Bitcoin vacillates as a major economic turning point. Between fears of recession and Sino-American trade tensions, its immediate future therefore remains uncertain. The markets closely scrutinize the tariff negotiations, the outcome of which could either revive the BTC to its summits, or to precipitate a brutal fall. May promises to be decisive.
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