On January 20, Donald Trump officially took office for a second term. If, on the Washington side, the party was in full swing, on the other side of the Atlantic, Europe is asking itself: “ Is the European Union ready to weather the Trump storm? » The answer, for now, seems as vague as a cloud of smoke. It is not so much Trump's character that worries us, but the policy he deploys, with “dollars” and economic threats.
France and Europe facing a Donald Trump more threatening than ever
As Donald Trump begins his mandate under controversial auspicesEurope, on its knees, is seriously starting to ask itself questions. François Bayrou was one of the first to sound the alarmwarning that France and the EU risked being “ crushed » under the weight of economic and geopolitical decisions taken by the White House.
And he is not wrong : with policies as aggressive as those of Trump, old Europe could well find itself marginalized in the world order.
Where the United States seems to want impose control over everythingfrom research to industry, Europe is struggling to adopt a clear line. The balance of power risks shifting in favor of Washington, in particular thanks to theuse of the dollar as an instrument of domination.
“ If we don't do something, we're going to be dominated », Launched Bayrou, a little desperate. Europe must react, but therein lies the trap: European cohesion is sorely lacking.
Indeed, like Bayrou, Dominique de Villepin share this sense of urgency. The former Prime Minister is worried abouta Europe ready to become Trump’s “vassal”instead of remaining the key player that she was.
A Europe that is searching for itself, divided between its major economic players like Germany and Italy, and other nations closer to Trump's ideological line. European unity, a concept which seems more and more obsolete…
The Trump steamroller and his weapon: the dollar
Under Trump's second term, it is clear that the dollar will continue to play a central role in the global economic arena. On Inauguration Day, the first clues are already there: the greenback seems to be taking over the euroand it's not just a question of market fluctuations.
No, America is banking on its currency to impose a hegemony that does not speak its name.
The United States, with its industrial and trade policies, is counting on maintain constant pressure on the EU. And it's not just a story of exchange rates. Customs tariffs, regulations, everything is done to favor American interests. In the meantime, global markets are already adjusting to the rise of the dollar, and this is not without consequences.
Europe, increasingly fragmented, seems to be falling behind, and the idea of a “deal” with Trump, particularly on defense, is encountering internal resistance.
While the European Commission has planned a response “ alternating between stick and carrot »this strategy, despite its promise of countersanctions, remains fragile. If European unity does not manifest itself quickly, the divergences within the Twenty-Seven risk reducing her to a common spectator. Whether on the commercial, diplomatic or even military level, Europe seems on the defensive.
A scattered European response: is unity still possible?
The stakes are high: the United States, under Trump, is not content with being a trading partner of Europe, it is becoming a dominant force. But is the European Union ready to react consistently ? On the one hand, countries like Germany or Italy, with their trade surpluses with the United States, could be more inclined to come to terms with Washington.
On the other, nations like France, traditionally more cautious, are pressing for a harder line.
The French commissioner Stéphane Séjourné mentioned the possibility of a “deal” with Trumpbut the price to pay could be too high. European security guarantees within NATO could well be negotiated against trade concessions.
However, to succeed in imposing a common front, Europe should first get rid of internal differences. The task is not simple, as political tensions are increasingly evident.
The specter of disunity hangs over the EU. If certain member states move closer to Trump's line, in particular because of their similar ideologies, European cohesion crumbles. The decline of European unity would be a victory for Trump and his government, who will not hesitate to exploit loopholes to strengthen their own power.
To drive the point home, Jorge Dezcallar de Mazarredo, former director of the Spanish intelligence services, warns against a possible disappearance of Europe from the world's Top 10 by then. A prospect which could become reality if Europe does not quickly find the strength to resist the economic and political pressures imposed by the Trump administration.
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