Gold has just touched a historic summit at $ 3,357 on the ounce in April, arousing a burning question: will Bitcoin follow suit? While investors are looking for shelters in the face of economic turbulence, some experts scrutinize the links between these two workers. But is this correlation systematic, or does it hide more complex realities? Dive into underlying data and mechanisms.
In short
- Gold has reached a historic record at $ 3,357 per ounce.
- Bitcoin could follow, with a discrepancy observed from 100 to 150 days.
- The correlation depends on the economic context and the confidence of investors.
- Some predict a BTC at $ 400,000 by the end of 2025.
Bitcoin and gold: historical links and predictive models
In 2017, an increase of 30 % of gold preceded the Bitcoin explosion at $ 19,120. Three years later, the precious metal reached $ 2,075 before the BTC flourished at $ 69,000. These episodes suggest a recurring scheme: Bitcoin would react with a period of 100 to 150 days after gold records.
Joe Consortiexpert at Theya, summarizes: “When the quarrel is racing, gold feels inflation first. Bitcoin follows, but with latency. »»
This discrepancy would be explained by market psychology. Gold, ancestral refuge value, first attracts capital in times of crisis.
Institutional investors, more cautious, then turn to Bitcoin, perceived as digital gold. However, this sequence is not mechanical. In 2022, despite a resilient gold, Bitcoin fell under $ 20,000, undermined by crypto bankruptcies and the increase in rates. The correlation therefore depends on the context.
A mathematical model, the power law, adds an intriguing layer. By normalizing the capitalization of bitcoin compared to that of gold, some provide a summit at $ 400,000 by the end of 2025.
An anonymous analyst, APSK32table even on a paroxysmal phase between July and November 2025. These projections, although speculative, rely on past cycles where the BTC systematically surpassed gold after a delay.
Macroeconomic context: the uncertainties that weigh on the situation
Beyond the graphics, the Or-Bitcoin duo reflects deeper worries. Mike NovogratzCEO of Galaxy Digital, evokes a “minsky moment” for the American economy: instability where financial excesses precipitate a collapse.
The weakened dollar, a national debt of 35,000 billion and geopolitical tensions push investors towards tangible assets. In this landscape, Bitcoin acts as a barometer of distrust of traditional systems.
However, the dynamics differ. Gold benefits from a timeless status, while Bitcoin remains volatile, linked to technological and regulatory innovations.
In 2024, its course stagnated despite the surge of gold, recalling that its valuation also depends on institutional adoption and ETF. Novogratz also stresses that the markets underestimate the economic risks, which could amplify the bruising movements of the BTC in the coming months.
There remains the question of timing. If the previous cycles suggest a delayed effect, the current convergence of crises (inflation, energy transitions, American elections) could accelerate trends.
Bitcoin supporters see it as an opportunity: Bitcoin is not just a gold clone. It is a cover against the collapse of fiduciary currencies. But this vision assumes that global investors cross a psychological course, by treating bitcoin as a reserve of legitimate value.
Ultimately, the relationship between gold and Bitcoin is less a reflex than a mirror of economic fears. The BTC follows gold … when macro conditions lend themselves to it. Its increase potential depends as much on monetary policies as on its maturation as an active refuge. In the coming months, marked by political tensions and rate adjustments, will be a crucial test. If Bitcoin exceeds its 2021 record after gold, the correlation will gain credibility. Otherwise, he will have to assert his independence – a key step to conquer the status of “Gold 2.0”.
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