Despite the decline, Bitcoin has not lost the game against gold

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macroeconomics at Fidelity, continues to favor bitcoin over gold despite the recent decline in both assets. His reasoning is not based on their performance in dollars, but on the ability of BTC to gain ground against the yellow metal while maintaining greater upside potential.

Against gold, bitcoin clearly regains the advantage

Both bitcoin and gold fell during the recent wave of risk aversion. A reading limited to their dollar prices could therefore conclude that neither of them correctly fulfills its protective role.

Timmer uses another indicator: the number of ounces of gold that a bitcoin can buy. This ratio eliminates variations specific to the dollar and directly measures the relative strength of the two assets. After a low of close to 12 ounces during the current cycle, one BTC now allows you to acquire around 21 ounces.

Several elements support this tactical preference:

• Bitcoin has crossed its recent consolidation zone against gold;
• The BTC-to-gold ratio has gained around 75% since its cycle low;
• Spot bitcoin ETFs have attracted nearly $55 billion since 2024;
• Index products linked to gold and silver received approximately 29 billion over the same period;
• Bitcoin and gold, however, have a 60-70% correlation with the S&P 500.

“I still prefer bitcoin to gold at the moment”, asserts Timmer, pointing out that its relative price is holding up even as both assets decline. He therefore does not claim that BTC escapes the correction, but that it depreciates less than gold in their direct confrontation.

This ratio nevertheless remains cyclical. Speculative capital has already circulated several times between the two assets since the end of 2025. An increase in bitcoin against gold indicates taking leadership, not permanent superiority.

ETFs tip the scales without removing risk

Cumulative flows into ETFs support Timmer’s analysis. Since their launch, US bitcoin funds have received almost twice as much capital as precious metals products over the comparative period.

This difference suggests that institutional investors now give bitcoin a real place in their allocations. However, it does not guarantee that this capital remains invested during phases of stress. On November 5, bitcoin ETFs saw over $430 million in outflows in a single session.

Bitcoin thus combines two profiles. It can be seen as a scarce asset in the face of currency depreciation, while reacting as a risky technology investment when Wall Street corrects. Timmer already has it describe like a “high beta” version of gold: its upside potential is greater, but its variations are also more violent.

This volatility explains why preferring BTC does not mean giving it a better ratio between return and risk in all situations. Gold generally remains less volatile and benefits from structural demand from central banks, jewelry and institutional investors.

Bitcoin, for its part, offers programmable scarcity, global mobility and easy access through ETFs. Its maximum supply of 21 million units can amplify its price when demand increases, but also accentuate declines when investors seek liquidity.

Preferring bitcoin does not mean replacing gold

The current correlation with stocks constitutes the main limitation of the scenario. Timmer acknowledges that bitcoin and gold have recently “joins the risk aversion party”with a correlation of 60 to 70% against the S&P 500.

In the short term, neither therefore functions as a perfect hedge against market declines. This relationship may be temporary, but it reduces their ability to diversify when investors need it most.

Timmer is not, however, proposing to abandon gold. In a hypothetical allocation presented in September, he explained that he had moved from a distribution of five units of gold for one of bitcoin to a more balanced exposure, because he anticipated outperformance of BTC. His choice remains a tactical rotation between two complementary assets.

Gold retains a defensive role linked to its history, its liquidity and its adoption by states. Bitcoin constitutes a more offensive option on the same theme: the search for a rare asset in the face of public debt and monetary expansion.

The signal to watch is therefore not only the return of bitcoin above a threshold in dollars. If the BTC-gold ratio continues to rise while both assets stabilize, Timmer’s preference will gain credibility. If it falls back below its former consolidation zone, bitcoin’s recent leadership will appear as another fleeting rotation.