Usually, September is a risky period for crypto investments. Historically, bitcoin shows its weakest monthly performance during this period, while central bank decisions can intensify volatility. This year’s context adds many uncertainties, including a probable rise in rates in the United States. Despite these threats, three cryptos still have a strong case to make it through the month. These are bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana.
In brief
- September remains historically unfavorable for the crypto market, with volatility reinforced by monetary uncertainties.
- Bitcoin appears to be the more defensive choice, thanks to its liquidity, dominance and potential support from ETFs.
- Ethereum maintains a strong position in tokenized finance, driven by stablecoins, RWAs and flows to ETFs.
- Solana presents a more offensive profile, supported by its on-chain activity, but with a higher risk of correction.
- The Fed’s decision and flows into ETFs will be decisive for the trajectory of these three cryptos in September.
September combines unfavorable seasonality and monetary risk
Bitcoin has lost around 3% on average during the month of September since 2013. Only five positive closes were recorded over the period. This seasonality has earned it the nickname “Rektember”a combination of September and the expression “rekt”linked to heavy losses in the crypto industry.
The macroeconomic situation consolidates this caution this year. A probability greater than 60% is assigned by the markets to a rate increase by the Federal Reserve on September 16. Conflicts in the Middle East are also supporting oil and inflation expectations. Justin Onuekwusi of St. James’s Place noted :
How the Fed communicates will be important because it affects its credibility and global rates.
In this context, the three assets do not present the same level of risk:
- Bitcoin is the most defensive choice thanks to its liquidity and market dominance;
- Ethereum offers an intermediate profile supported by staking, stablecoins and tokenization;
- Solana offers more offensive potential, but its price remains more exposed to corrections.
No positive performance is guaranteed by this selection. It simply favors cryptos which have significant liquidity and identifiable economic activity.
Bitcoin remains the most defensive choice in the crypto market
Bitcoin remains the most valuable and liquid asset in the crypto market. These specificities make trading easier and usually limit the magnitude of movements compared to smaller altcoins. However, such characteristics do not eliminate the risk of correction, especially after the 25% increase recorded in August.
ETFs are also an indicator to watch. These American products attracted nearly 2.5 billion dollars in seven sessions during the month of August, according to available data. The continuity of these inflows would support BTC. On the contrary, significant outflows could amplify selling pressure.
Bitcoin therefore constitutes the most prudent profile among the three cryptos selected. Its progress will depend above all on the Fed’s decision, bond yields and its ability to sustainably regain $80,000.
Ethereum maintains its lead in tokenized finance
Ethereum benefits from activity less dependent on speculative transactions alone. The blockchain hosts around $148 billion in stablecoins, or nearly 49% of the supply spread across different networks, according to ChallengeLlama,
Its position also appears in the tokenization of real-world assets. Ethereum currently hosts $17.57 billion in distributed RWA and $159.71 billion in stablecoins according to RWA.xyz. These sums consolidate its role as financial infrastructure, even if the price of ether undergoes a correction.
Ethereum ETFs also lined up ten sessions of net inflows through August 28. Their cumulative flows are then around 12.98 billion dollars. This demand provides potential support, however the token remains more volatile than bitcoin. Competition from other blockchains and the fall in fee income also represent two risks.
Solana offers more potential, but also volatility
Solana offers the most offensive profile of this selection. The network combines low fees, fast execution, and significant activity in decentralized exchanges, stablecoins, and tokenized assets.
Its stablecoin supply had exceeded $16 billion in May. Solana ETFs also total nearly $1.13 billion in assets, according to the Solana Foundation. Blockchain processed $1.9 trillion in stablecoin transactions in first half, according to 21Shares.
Solana, however, remains more sensitive to liquidity withdrawals and rapid sales. It is more suitable for a dynamic exhibition than a defensive position. During September, split acquisitions could reduce the risk of entering just before a correction. The Federal Reserve’s decision and flows into ETFs will then determine whether bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana can truly withstand their unfavorable seasonality.
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