Crypto: As soon as it is crossed, BNB falls back below its last peak: Analysis of June 19, 2024.

Binance Coin caught up with its last rise, which allowed it to cross its last ATH. Let’s take a look at the future outlook for BNB.

BNB price situation

BNB has attracted buying interest since $200 which has continued to be fueled. It is thanks to this that it quickly reached $300, then $600. At this last level, the price of BNB consolidated in the form of an ascending triangle before recently crossing its last all-time high above $700. Unfortunately, it appears that this rise was not sustained, having been sucked away in less than a week by sellers.

At the time of writing, BNB is trading near $600. This last psychological level could be identified as short-term support, having already acted in the past and concordant with an important value zone. Interestingly, this is also where the 50-day moving average is located. The rebound on the latter would be more reassuring regarding the continuation of the upward trend in BNB. On the cryptocurrency dynamics side, we can observe that there has been an acceleration which, unfortunately, has not been sustained, as can be seen by the price itself as well as by the oscillators. Unsurprisingly, this does not reinforce buying convictions in the short term.

BNB/USD Chart (1D)BNB/USD Chart (1D)
BNB/USD Chart (1D)

The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Today trainer at Family Tradinga community of thousands of own-account traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content and mutual assistance around the financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.

Focus on BNB derivatives (BNB/USDT)

Open interest in BNB/USDT perpetual contracts has been rather stable until the recent BNB rally. Unsurprisingly, it initially increased before decreasing. We can nevertheless consider that it remains in a resurgence phase. Given the situation, one can easily imagine continued buying interest. However, recent liquidation events reveal a capitulation of buyers being primarily buy-oriented. Concerning financing rates, they have become stable again. This drop could suggest a decline in buyer interest. However, we can be reassured by the fact that the recent stability of financing rates indicates good arbitrage of the contract with its underlying, illustrating a healthy market.

Open Interest / Liquidations & Funding rate BNB/USDTOpen Interest / Liquidations & Funding rate BNB/USDT
Open Interest / Liquidations & Funding rate BNB/USDT

The three-month BNB/USDT liquidation heatmap reveals that the liquidation zone above $600 was recently breached. Buyer interest appears to have been sustained for a short while before being sucked away. Now, the most significant liquidation zone in the last three months is around $550. The price approaching this level could result in a massive triggering of orders, increasing the risk of a period of heightened volatility. This area therefore represents a crucial point of interest for investors.

BNB/USDT Liquidation Heatmap (3 months)BNB/USDT Liquidation Heatmap (3 months)
BNB/USDT Liquidation Heatmap (3 months)

Assumptions for the BNB price

  • If the price of BNB remains above $600, we could anticipate a bullish recovery up to the BNB ATH of $725. The next levels to discover would be $800 or even $900, consistent with the Fibonacci extensions taken into account since the last fluctuations. At this point, that would represent an increase of more than 50%.
  • If the price of BNB fails to stay above $600, we could envisage a return to around $500. The next support to take into account, if the bearish movement continues, would be around $400. At this point, that would represent a drop of about 34%.

Conclusion

BNB experienced rapid growth followed by crossing its all-time high. The latest drop in the cryptocurrency demonstrates a lack of support, causing uncertain market dynamics. Nevertheless, the medium/long term structure of BNB, being bullish, continues to support optimism. Thus, all that remains is to carefully observe the price reaction at the different key levels to confirm or refute the current hypotheses. It is also important to remain vigilant against potential “fake outs” and “market squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let us remember that these analyzes are based solely on technical criteria and that the price of cryptocurrencies can also evolve quickly depending on other more fundamental factors.

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