Under pressure from traditional markets, the first crypto has just reached a weekly low in a climate dominated by the surge in oil prices and geopolitical tensions. This movement goes beyond simple technical correction and revives darker scenarios. Some analysts are already talking about a return to $10,000, reigniting the debate on the vulnerability of the crypto market to macroeconomic shocks.
In brief
- Bitcoin hits a weekly low, under pressure from traditional markets and a tense macroeconomic climate.
- The surge in oil prices and geopolitical tensions are triggering a wave of risk aversion across all markets.
- Massive liquidations are shaking the crypto market, confirming a withdrawal from risky assets.
- An analyst relaunches an extreme scenario, evoking a possible return of bitcoin towards $10,000.
Bitcoin weakened by macroeconomic instability
Bitcoin briefly fell below $66,000, reaching its lowest level of the week amid market pressure. Several converging signals explain this decrease:
- Oil rose to $114 a barrel amid tensions over the Strait of Hormuz;
- The Nasdaq fell 2%, reflecting a flight towards assets deemed safer;
- More than $400 million in liquidations were recorded in the crypto market in 24 hours.
This movement is part of a global dynamic of disengagement from risky assets, where bitcoin now evolves in close correlation with traditional markets.
The ambient nervousness was also reflected in public reactions. Thus, Kobeissi Letter described the situation as “the most confusing phase of the Iran war yet”highlighting the extreme uncertainty linked to the geopolitical context.
An intervention by Donald Trump, disappointing for investors, did not reassure the markets. At the same time, the prospect of inflation of up to 3.6% if oil prices remain unchanged heightens concerns about the macroeconomic environment.
The $10,000 scenario revived by analysts
Beyond the immediate reaction of the markets, some voices seek to place the trajectory of bitcoin in a longer perspective. Mike McGlone, analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, suggests a possible return to a level well below current prices.
He estimates “that before the largest liquidity injection in history in 2020-2021, bitcoin was hovering around $10,000, and it could be getting back there”. This statement builds on the idea that the exceptional liquidity conditions that supported the market after 2020 could be reversed.
This threshold of $10,000 corresponds to a historical zone linked in particular to the development of bitcoin futures markets, often considered as a point of equilibrium before massive monetary expansion. McGlone's analysis indicates a return to a valuation more aligned with pre-cycle dynamics, in a context where overall liquidity is contracting.
This reading opens a general debate on the current nature of bitcoin. Speculative asset sensitive to macroeconomic conditions or store of value capable of withstanding external shocks, its positioning is questionable. If tensions on energy and inflation persist, markets could continue to reduce their exposure to risk. Conversely, an easing of the global context could quickly reverse the trend. Between these two scenarios, bitcoin is now evolving under the direct influence of global macroeconomic balances.
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