Bitcoin closed last week around $63,000 and begins a new week in positive territory. Let’s take a look at the future outlook for the BTC price together.
Status of Bitcoin (BTC)
The price of Bitcoin continued its upward movement to reach the psychological threshold of $60,000. At this level, it began a consolidation phase by forming a symmetrical triangle, which was then crossed from above, propelling Bitcoin directly towards $68,800, just $200 from its all-time high. At the same time, the market capitalization of Bitcoin surpassed its previous record, reaching $1.35 trillion. For comparison, the market capitalization of META (formerly Facebook) stands at $1.27 trillion as of the publication of this article. Reaching such a high market capitalization, accompanied by a price approaching its all-time high (ATH) before the halving, constitutes a first for Bitcoin.
Although BTC has seen a slight market decline, bringing it below $66,000, its overall trend remains bullish. Importantly, Bitcoin price has moved away from its 50-day moving average, indicating a period of high volatility that may be corrected soon. Regarding market dynamics, it is not surprising that it is perceived as positive. This is particularly evident when looking at oscillators, which even suggest that an overbought period may be underway.
The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Today trainer at Family Trhasdinga community of thousands of own-account traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content and mutual assistance around the financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.
Focus on derivatives (BTCUSDT)
We can observe that the open interest of BTC/USDT perpetual contracts has increased in parallel with its price, accompanied by a positive funding rate and mostly short liquidations. All of these elements suggest that the speculative interest of traders is mainly oriented towards buying. However, it is important to highlight that the funding rate is significantly positive, suggesting that the price of the BTC/USDT perpetual contract is higher than the price of BTC in the spot market. This gap may reflect increased optimism in the derivatives market. As much as this may seem positive, a funding rate that is too high over an extended period of time can also indicate that the market is in a period of overbought. Thus, balancing is desirable for a healthy continuation of the trend.
The liquidation heatmap for BTC/USD currently indicates that the liquidation zones closest to the current price are below it. We note in particular the level of $61,000, then, at an even lower level, the threshold of $50,000, which is particularly significant. As the market approaches these levels, we could see a massive triggering of orders, potentially increasing the volatility of the cryptocurrency. These areas therefore represent major points of interest for investors.
Hypotheses for the price of Bitcoin (BTC)
- If the price of Bitcoin manages to stay above $60,000, we could envisage a further rise to its ATH, that is to say around $69,000. Beyond that, the next resistance would be theoretical, but using Fibonacci extensions, the $80,000 level could be envisioned as corresponding to the 100% extension. If the uptrend continues, the levels of $95,000, or even the symbolic threshold of $100,000, could be considered. Reaching the latter would mark an increase of around +$50%.
- If the price of Bitcoin fails to remain above $60,000, we could envisage support for buying interest in the $58,000 or even $57,000 zone. The next level to take into account, if the bearish movement continues, would be around $52,000. At this stage, this would represent a drop close to -22%.
Conclusion
Bitcoin has reached a record capitalization and is now a few dollars from its all-time high (ATH). While there is no indication that Bitcoin’s momentum will stop, it is important to note that a correction could legitimately be considered after such volatility and at this price level. Thus, it will be crucial to carefully observe the price reaction at different key levels to confirm or refute the current hypotheses. It is also important to remain vigilant against potential “fake outs” and “market squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let us remember that these analyzes are based solely on technical criteria and that the price of cryptocurrencies can also evolve quickly depending on other more fundamental factors.
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