Crypto: 90% chance for approval of spot Bitcoin ETF, according to latest forecasts!

The crypto industry is following developments surrounding Bitcoin ETF filings with the SEC with interest. This enthusiasm has also been particularly reinforced with the legal debacle of the American financial regulator against Grayscale on this issue in particular. Since then, many experts believe that the SEC will soon have to authorize the emergence of a Bitcoin ETF. This prospect seems imminent.

The crypto industry in turmoil after the legal reversal with Grayscale

When BlackRock submitted its Bitcoin ETF application a few weeks ago, experts estimated the chances of such a procedure being successful at 50%. Now, they estimate the probability that the SEC will be favorable to it is 90%.

The significant evolution of this perception specialists follows recent developments on this issue. Recently, the financial regulator has been open to discussions with bidders by providing comments on their requests.

This approach is presented as particularly remarkable. This is because they demonstrate in particular the SEC’s desire to maintain a constructive dialogue between Bitcoin ETF candidates.

Cathie Wood’s company Ark Invest, which is one of these applicants, has extensively documented its application based on comments from the SEC. His application file would have been extended by five pages devoted to risk disclosure, among other things.

Approval of a Bitcoin ETF announced for January 2024, at the latest

Ark Invest is not the only company to have expanded its file. Invesco Galaxy, an asset manager also requesting a Bitcoin ETF, also followed suit by updating its file. Other ETF applicants should do the same.

Based on this progress, considered more than historic, experts tend to think that the approval of a Bitcoin ETF is imminent. For them, it could be made official by Wednesday January 10, 2024.

One element in particular allows them to consider that a Bitcoin ETF could be approved by then. This is because, against all expectations, the SEC notably chose not to appeal the court decision favorable to Grayscale. This choice would be motivated by pressure from courts and other issuers pushing the SEC to give the green light for a bitcoin spot ETF.

Regardless, the SEC’s option not to return to trial against Grayscale gives new impetus to this process. This, in a context where opportunities, focused on Ethereum ETFs, are on the horizon.

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