The G7 public debt reaches disturbing heights!

The public debt of the great economic powers of the G7 is at the center of concerns in 2025. Between increasing concerns and increased vigilance, the budgetary management of these nations becomes a key indicator of global economic stability. The degradation of the Triple-A of the United States and the sales of disappointing bonds in Japan illustrate this new tension perfectly, and highlight the risks linked to increasingly unbearable debt levels. These disturbing signals strengthen the doubts of investors and amplify the volatility of the global financial markets.

The United States and Japan: a high-tension duo on the debt market

The United States is now at the center of bond investors concerns. Moody's withdrew the last American triple-A, a first for decades, which has weakened confidence around the country's ability to manage its debt.

Added to this is the tax bill brought by the Trump administration, which could increase public debt by $ 3.3 trillions by 2034, according to the committee for a responsible budget, a non -partisan organization.

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, even talks about a “Craching” In the bond market, linked in part to a debt policy deemed excessive. Despite these alerts, the place of the American currency as a global reserve currency and the assurances of the secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent according to which “The country will never lack” Terrain concerns somewhat.

More specifically, several key elements illustrate Current tensions around American debt ::

• The degradation of the American triple-A by Moody's, a strong signal that weighs on market confidence;
• The American tax bill which could increase the federal debt of several trillion dollars by 2034;
• The warning of Jamie Dimon relating to the bursting of the bond market due to over -indebtedness;
• The unique position of the dollar as a global reserve currency, which offers a stamp against a defect.

In Japan, public debt now exceeds 200 % of GDP, the highest level among the economies developed. The demand for long -term Japanese obligations is decreasing, the last auctions having been judged ” disappointing By analysts.

The Bank of Japan reduces its bond purchases for the first time in sixteen years, which accentuates doubts about the current dynamics.

This series of elements highlights a tense bond landscape, where the markets question the sustainability of tax and monetary policies in place, in particular at the level of these two economic giants.

Europe between vulnerability in the United Kingdom and stability found in Italy

The United Kingdom presents a critical configuration, with a public debt which approaches 100 % of GDP and long-term borrowing costs which exceed 5 % for bonds at 30 years.

The Minister of Finance Rachel Reeves is preparing to reveal a multi -year spending review, in a context where the government favors an increase in defense and health budgets without considering increasing taxes.

This mixture of increased commitments and uncertain tax discipline maintains the country in a delicate position in the face of the volatility of the bond markets, with the International Monetary Fund which urges a reduction in the public deficit.

In addition, a possible anticipated end of active sales of the Bank of England on the bond market could offer temporary support for the stability of the Gilts market (British state obligations).

Conversely, France and Italy display contrasting trajectories. The risk premium on French debt compared to Germany has significantly decreased, from 90 to 66 base points, thanks to an improvement in the confidence of investors fueled by expectations of greater European cohesion, particularly in the field of defense.

However, the French government is preparing a four -year deficit reduction plan that could rekindle political debates and inform about budgetary tensions.

In Italy, the situation has improved thanks to greater political and economic stability, with a budget deficit reduced to 3.4 % of GDP in 2024, against 7.2 % the previous year, and a projection at 2.9 % in 2026, comparable to that of Germany.

This performance tightened the gap of Italian bond yields compared to those Germany, which reflected increased market confidence in Italian management, despite persistent structural challenges.

It should be noted that other blocks, especially the BRICS, display signs of resilience and growth.

The rise in tensions on the public debt markets of the G7 countries illustrates a latent fragility at the heart of the major world economies. While some players are facing very clear alarm signals, including 36,000 billion public debts in the United States, other European countries manage to stabilize their situation or show signs of improvement.