Cryptos, once considered a marginal phenomenon, have gradually established themselves as a central element of the global financial ecosystem. This major change is illustrated with a promising new perspective. Matthew Sigel, director of research at VanEck, said the likelihood of seeing a Solana Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) approved in the United States sometime in 2025 is high, but exceeds current predictions. Sigel says Polymarket's estimates of 77% undervalue this potential, a statement that reignites the debate about the future of crypto derivatives and their role in transforming financial markets. This statement comes as US institutional investors and regulators attempt to balance innovation and the legal framework. In this context, the possible approval of a Solana ETF could significantly expand access to the crypto market, and would attract both capital and institutional players. If these projections come to fruition, they would mark an important step in the integration of these assets into traditional portfolios.
Optimism surrounding the approval of a Solana ETF
Matthew Sigel expressed his opinion on the X platform (formerly Twitter). He stressed that Polymarket's forecast, which puts the probability of approval of a Solana ETF at 77% for the year 2025, does not fully reflect reality. “In my opinion, these figures should be much higher,” he said. asserted on January 2, 2025. This comment comes as Polymarket, the main player in financial prediction platforms, has already revised its estimates upwards, reaching 84% at the start of the year. This development reflects palpable optimism in the crypto sector.
Several factors reinforce this positive outlook. Politically, the recent election of pro-crypto President Donald Trump represented a significant shift. Thanks to the display of his ambition to position the United States as a world leader in cryptos, he has revived the hope of regulations more favorable to the development of financial products based on these assets. This change in political direction, combined with growing dynamics in the markets, fuels the expectations of analysts such as Sigel, who perceive in this environment a unique opportunity for the approval of new products like the Solana ETFs.
Regulatory challenges and long-term prospects
While optimism around the approval of a Solana ETF is palpable, several hurdles remain. Among them, the concerns of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) take center stage. The body has already expressed doubts about the classification of Solana as a financial security, a label which, if confirmed, could compromise the establishment of an ETF based on this asset. This point is part of a broader debate on the distinction between financial assets and commodities, a complex issue that burdens regulatory processes.
However, precedents offer promising avenues. The successes of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, approved through specific structures known as “grantor trust”, demonstrate that adapted solutions can be implemented to meet the expectations of regulators. If such an approach were to be applied to Solana, it could represent a major breakthrough in institutional access to cryptos.
The implications of possible approval would be significant. A Solana ETF would strengthen the legitimacy of cryptos and accelerate their widespread adoption. Institutional investors, often cautious about the risks associated with these assets, could diversify their portfolios by integrating Solana into regulated and secure frameworks. At the same time, the crypto market would benefit from increased liquidity, which would strengthen its resilience and its ability to attract new capital. However, challenges persist, including the intrinsic volatility of cryptos and increased caution from regulators, which could dampen this favorable momentum.
If VanEck's predictions come true, the approval of a Solana ETF by the end of the year could be a major shift for the crypto industry. Thanks to this offer, considered as a new entry point for institutional investors, this product would help to strengthen the legitimacy of these assets, but also to stimulate their large-scale adoption. This advance would lay the foundations for further maturation of financial markets, which would pave the way for ever deeper integration of cryptos into the traditional economy.
Maximize your Tremplin.io experience with our 'Read to Earn' program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
