Bitcoin is going through one of its most difficult phases in months. Nearly half of the circulating supply ends up in losses, ETFs bleed billions. However, miners and long-term holders refuse to give in. Should we see this as a signal of hope, or simply the denial of a market that has not yet hit bottom?
In brief
- Nearly 43% of the circulating bitcoin supply is currently in loss.
- The NUPL indicator drops to 21.30%, a characteristic level of widespread capitulation.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs are seeing $2.17 billion in net outflows since the beginning of February.
- Miners hold on to their BTC rather than sell it, partially funded by AI-related revenue.
Indicators sound the alarm
February 2026 will be remembered as a painful month for bitcoin holders. Analyst GugaOnChain, a recognized contributor to CryptoQuant, published a particularly harsh on-chain assessment: 42.85% of the circulating supply is now in loss, and the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) indicator has fallen to 21.30%.
Over the last thirty days, BTC lost almost 28% of its valueand is trading approximately 46% below its all-time high above $126,000, reached in October 2025.
These levels are reminiscent of painful episodes. Experts at XWIN Research note that the Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 8 out of 100, an extremely rare level. It had only been observed during the bottom of 2018, the COVID crash in March 2020 and the collapse of FTX in November 2022. In short: the current market sentiment resembles a real crisis.
On the institutional side, the trend is just as worrying. Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen $2.17 billion in net outflows since the start of the month, with a notable acceleration when the price crossed the $60,000 threshold on February 6.
More broadly, according to CoinShares, crypto investment products have suffered $3.8 billion in withdrawals over four consecutive weeks. The sector's assets under management have fallen to their lowest level since April 2025.
The behavioral dimension also sheds light on the situation. Strongly negative funding rates on major exchanges, according to Santiment, indicate that many traders are betting heavily on continued declines. Behavioral finance speaks here of loss aversion and herd behavior: when fear dominates, caution becomes instinctive.
Signals of resistance that deserve attention
However, the story does not end there. Beneath the surface of a falling market, several indicators reveal unexpected resistance, and that's precisely what makes the situation interesting.
Long-term holders, far from panicking, have absorbed 380,104 BTC over the past 30 days. This figure reflects an unshakeable conviction among those who know the bitcoin cycles: buy when blood is flowing in the streets, according to the famous expression.
Miners adopt the same philosophy: rather than liquidating their BTC to cover their operational costs, they choose to hold them. Part of their revenue now comes from services linked to artificial intelligence, which gives them unprecedented leeway to resist selling pressure.
Michael Saylor, CEO of Strategy, embodies this belief. Despite a correction of more than 50% from the all-time high, it announced a new purchase of 1,142 BTC for around $90 million — bringing the company's total to 714,644 BTC valued at $49.3 billion.
On a global scale, there are also telling geographic divergences. If the United States concentrates $403 million in outflows, Germany, Canada and Switzerland show significant combined inflows — proof that American pessimism is not unanimous.
In short, bitcoin is going through a zone of severe turbulence, and GugaOnChain does not expect a real recovery before the second quarter of 2026. However, the strong hands, miners, long-term holders, and players like Strategy, are sending a clear message: they are not selling. In past cycles, it is often this type of silent resistance that preceded the most spectacular reversals.
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