The cryptocurrency market is looking for a point of support after several sessions of decline. Bitcoin is trading around $69,000 as investors evaluate the latest US inflation figures. For Matt Mena, strategist at 21shares, a return to $87,000 remains possible, with a move above $90,000 in the longer term. This outlook, however, depends on precise technical levels and a lasting return of buyers to the market.
In brief
- Matt Mena, strategist at 21shares, sees bitcoin rebounding towards $87,000, then beyond $90,000.
- Maintaining above $69,000 remains critical to preserving recovery prospects.
- US Bitcoin ETFs saw $284.1 million in net outflows on November 12.
- A break below $69,000 could result in a retest of the $65,000 support.
A rebound conditioned by the reconquest of technical thresholds
In his commentary provided to Bitcoin.com News on November 13, Matt Mena described a still fragile recovery for Bitcoin. The senior cryptocurrency research strategist at 21shares sees support around $69,000. After the publication of the American producer price index, the price tried to return to $70,000. This reaction suggests that some buyers are returning when selling pressure slows.
Mena estimated however, a sustainable movement requires several steps. Bitcoin must first regain $70,000, then cross the $74,000 zone. These two thresholds constitute important benchmarks after the recent decline. As long as the market remains below these levels, the rebound does not yet confirm a solid change in trend.
We view this rebound as an encouraging sign that buyers are stepping in as selling pressure eases, although a sustainable recovery will require bitcoin to climb back to $70,000 and then $74,000.
Matt Mena, senior cryptocurrency research strategist at 21shares. Source: 21shares.
Sustaining above $69,000 could form a basis for recovery. Conversely, a breakdown of this support would leave $65,000 vulnerable to a retest. Mena also recalls that the successive lows are approximately 20% above the low point of the cycle, established at $57,000. This progression of the lows constitutes a sign of resistance despite the recent weakness.
Production Inflation Brings Respite to Bitcoin Markets
The publication of the producer price index contributed to the return of purchases. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has announcement a monthly increase of 0.3% in October. This pace marks a clear slowdown compared to the revised 1.4% increase recorded in September. The figures therefore offered a less worrying signal on the recent evolution of costs borne by producers.
However, the annual evolution remains less favorable. Producer price inflation rose from 6.3% to 6.5%, its highest level since November 2022. Excluding food, energy and commercial services, prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month and 4.9% year-on-year. The report therefore presents contrasting signals, between monthly slowdown and annual acceleration.
Before this publication, bitcoin had rebounded after an intraday low near $67,500. It then came close to $70,000 again, without significantly extending its movement. This reaction came after a decline which took it below 74,000, 72,000 and then 70,000 dollars. The volume of trade, however, remained modest compared to that observed during previous sales.
Spot Bitcoin ETF liquidations and withdrawals weigh on recovery
The rebound occurred after a strong wave of liquidations in the cryptocurrency market. Over 24 hours, their amount reached 1.62 billion dollars according to Coinglass data. Bullish positions accounted for $1.46 billion of that total. These forced sales increased the pressure as platforms unwound leveraged positions.
This phenomenon has affected bitcoin as well as other digital assets. When prices decline rapidly, debt-financed positions may experience automatic liquidations. These operations add sales to the initial movement and complicate the return of regular demand. The stabilization around $69,000 must therefore be followed with caution.
Institutional demand constitutes another point of vigilance. On November 12, U.S. bitcoin-related spot ETFs recorded $284.1 million in net outflows. It was their sixth consecutive session of withdrawals. BlackRock’s IBIT fund concentrated $203.8 million of these outflows, before the publication of output inflation figures.
These withdrawals show that institutional flows are not yet clearly supporting the rebound. They alone are not enough to determine the next direction of the market. However, they report weaker demand for these investment products. To confirm the recovery, the price will have to return to its technical thresholds while fund outflows will have to slow down.
The August precedent fuels the scenario of a return towards $90,000
Mena points out that market movements can accelerate when dynamics change. By the end of August, bitcoin had risen from around $62,000 to $78,000 in three days. This progression represented an increase of 25%. For the strategist, this episode shows that a rapid return of buyers can modify the trajectory of the price.
His scenario first foresees a possible return towards $87,000. An increase above $90,000 also remains possible, but it would depend on a lasting improvement in demand. From a base near $69,000, reaching $87,000 would imply an increase of around 26%. The threshold of $90,000 would require an increase of close to 30%.
A rebound towards $87,000 and a possible breakthrough above $90,000 remains possible. This is even more so if we take into account seasonality, the fourth quarter having historically been the best for bitcoin, with average returns above 61%.
Matt Mena, senior cryptocurrency research strategist at 21shares. Source: 21shares.
The strategist also mentions seasonality to support this perspective. According to the historical data he cites, the fourth quarter has often been the most favorable period for bitcoin. Average returns would have exceeded 61% during this part of the year. This past trend, however, does not guarantee a repeat of the current movement, especially after recent ETF sell-offs and withdrawals.
The $69,000 and $65,000 levels remain decisive
Mena’s analysis is based above all on the market’s ability to defend its immediate support. In technical analysis, support refers to an area where buying can stop a decline. Resistance corresponds, conversely, to an area where sales can limit progression. These benchmarks allow you to follow the steps necessary for a possible recovery.
Maintaining above $69,000 would strengthen the possibility of stabilization. The return above $70,000 would then constitute a first sign of reconquest. The $74,000 level would represent a further step ahead of any projection towards $87,000. Without crossing these thresholds, the objective of $90,000 would remain a conditional hypothesis.
On the other hand, a drop below $69,000 would weaken this scenario. Mena then estimates that the market could return to test $65,000. This area would become particularly important after the recent pullback and massive liquidations. Buyer response at this level would help gauge the strength of demand.
The next movement will therefore depend on several elements identified by the strategist. The market will have to defend its support, regain lost levels and show more regular demand. Monthly inflation figures have provided some respite, but annual data and ETF outflows maintain uncertainties. The trajectory towards 87,000 then 90,000 dollars remains possible, while a relapse towards 65,000 dollars remains a clearly identified risk.
BTC can still target $90,000 according to the 21shares scenario, but this projection requires a gradual reconquest of technical thresholds. In the short term, the defense of $69,000 and the return above $70,000 then $74,000 will be decisive. If these levels give way, the market could instead look towards a retest of $65,000.
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