Warren Buffett just announced it on CNBC. Berkshire Hathaway bought about $17 billion of U.S. Treasuries in the latest auction. A seemingly banal movement. But for those who follow the price of bitcoin, this signal is worth careful reading.
In brief
- Berkshire Hathaway purchased approximately $17 billion of T-bills in the latest auction.
- Berkshire cash: $373 billion at the end of 2025 – an absolute record, more than double at the end of 2023.
- Buffett: the drop in the S&P 500 (–5.75%) is nothing compared to the crashes at –50%+.
- Bitcoin / Nasdaq correlation = +0.47 over 20 weeks, a bearish signal if the markets relapse.
- Berkshire liquidated Nu Holdings (crypto fintech) in Q1 2025 for +$250M profit.
- Some analysts predict Bitcoin at $30,000 in 2026 in a bearish scenario.
Why is Buffett's cash strategy a bearish signal for bitcoin?
According to the data, Berkshire Hathaway ended 2025 with $373 billion in cash and equivalents. It's more double the levels at the end of 2023. An absolute record! This does not directly impact the value of bitcoin, but is of some importance.
Asked about the recent decline in the S&P 500 (–5.75% since its peak in January 2026) during its interviewBuffett compares this correction to the great crashes of the past. Stocks are not yet substantially cheaper, he said. Which explains why Berkshire isn't buying.
The story gives weight to this reading. In 1998, Buffett began build up your reserves. Which brought Berkshire's cash to 13.1 billion. This represents 23% of assets. By 2000, this ratio had risen to 25%. This is precisely where the dot-com bubble burst. Berkshire then deployed its capital on the ruins. The leading indicator had worked.
This context explains the Berkshire's recent behavior towards crypto fintech. In the first quarter of 2025, the group sold its entire position in Nu Holdings. It is a pro-crypto digital bank acquired in 2021.
- Result: $250 million in profit.
- Implicit message: even the adjacent cryptocurrency is no longer in the sights.
How does the correlation between BTC and the stock market amplify this risk?
The data confirms it: bitcoin is no longer perceived as an asset uncorrelated with traditional markets. In fact, the 20-week rolling correlation between BTC/USD and Nasdaq Composite stands at +0.47.
Decryption: when the Nasdaq falls, the price of BTC tends to fall too.
This is not a new phenomenon, however. Since 2020, bitcoin has gradually aligned itself with risk assets (alongside tech stocks, not gold). When global liquidity contracts, investors sell what is most volatile first. And BTC remains at the top of the list for many.
For their part, crypto analysts are not reassuring. In a prolonged bear market scenario, many project a bitcoin price at 30,000 $ in 2026. And for good reason?
- risks of recession in the United States estimated at around 50%;
- geopolitical tensions that fuel inflation;
- questions about the quantum security of the Bitcoin network.
Several years ago, Buffett called “rat poison” bitcoin. And even today, he has not changed his mind. But it's not his opinion that counts here. It is above all his reading of the global market. When the world's most followed investor prefers Treasury bonds to any other asset, the signal is universal. And like it or not, bitcoin is no exception.
Certainly, Buffett's decision does not directly concern bitcoin. Nevertheless, it says something about the state of the markets. And in 2026, BTC cannot ignore this macro signal.
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