BRICS: Secret war between Moscow and Riyadh could cause the alliance to explode!

The oil price war is rarely a simple commercial confrontation; it often hides geopolitical issues of a much broader scope. Today, a new episode of this struggle is playing out on the international stage and pits two energy behemoths against each other: Russia and Saudi Arabia. While the world is still struggling to recover from the economic repercussions of the pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine continues to redraw the maps of global influence, these two major BRICS players are fiercely competing for dominance of the Asian market. Their maneuvers could well shake up the established order, both within OPEC and at the heart of global strategic alliances.

The fight for the Asian market

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia has been forced to redefine its commercial strategies, particularly in the energy sector. Isolated by Western sanctions, Moscow has turned to Asia to sell its oil, finding in China and India prime trading partners. This redirection has been so effective that Russia has managed, in the space of a few months, to become China's main oil supplier, even overtaking Saudi Arabia, which once held a dominant position in this strategic market. This dazzling conquest of the Asian market by Russia has deeply shaken Riyadh, which is seeing its market share shrink.an unacceptable situation for the kingdom which has long made the Asian market the pillar of its energy strategy.

In response to this Russian offensive, Saudi Arabia has considered an economic response: increasing its production to lower the price of a barrel and thus regain its competitiveness on the Asian market. However, the production capacities of the two countries differ greatly. Russia, although ambitious, is limited in its ability to significantly increase its production, being able to add only a few hundred barrels per day. Conversely, Saudi Arabia has much more room for maneuver, with the possibility of adding up to 3 million barrels per day. This difference could prove decisive in this battle where each additional barrel can tip the balance of power.

Geopolitical implications and potential consequences

As the economic rivalry between Russia and Saudi Arabia intensifies, the geopolitical repercussions of this confrontation are beginning to be felt. Moscow, already weakened by Western sanctions, finds itself increasingly isolated on the international stage, while Riyadh, strengthened by its internal stability and strategic alliances, is gaining influence. This dynamic is not without consequences within the BRICS, where tensions between these two influential members risk compromising the unity of the group. Saudi Arabia, newly integrated into this alliance, could well use its economic weight to counter Russian ambitions, or even threaten to leave the group if its interests are threatened.

In this context of growing rivalry, the role of China, the main beneficiary of the tensions between its two partners, becomes crucial. Beijing, by strengthening its surveillance of Russian financial transactions, is sending a strong signal: it will not tolerate disruptions that could destabilize its own interests. This position could push Russia to reconsider its alliances and seek new strategies to preserve its position on the Asian market. If tensions continue to escalate, they could not only weaken OPEC, but also shake the very foundations of the BRICS, and call into question the viability of this alliance in an increasingly multipolar world.

This showdown could well redefine geopolitical balances and call into question the unity of the BRICS, which are already struggling to weaken the dollar as they wanted.