Grayscale reignites the debate on the bitcoin cycle. For the management company, the market would have already found its low point in February 2026, where many analysts continue to expect a real bottom later in the year.
In brief
- Grayscale believes that Bitcoin has already found its bottom.
- The main signal comes from the return to balance of recent buyers.
- But several analysts are still targeting a real low point later in 2026.
Grayscale already sees the worst behind bitcoin
Grayscale believes that bitcoin has already bottomed out during the February stress wave. In his note published on April 21, 2026, Zach Pandl states that the bottom is in a zone between $65,000 and $70,000, after passing near $63,000 on February 5.
This point is important because it reverses the dominant narrative. Instead of a market still seeking its true capitulation, Grayscale suggests that the main cleanup has already taken place. In other words, bitcoin would no longer be falling. It would already be rebuilding with an increase to more than $78,000.
Nuance matters. Grayscale doesn't say all danger is gone. Above all, the firm says that the market may have already reached a lasting low. This is less dramatic than a promise of an immediate rally, but this is often how reversals begin: without much fanfare, then with a slow change in structure.
The key signal comes from recent buyers
The heart of the argument rests on the “realized price”. This indicator looks for the average cost of acquiring a group of bitcoins according to their last on-chain movement. In short, it is used to identify the area of profitability or pain of a cohort of investors.
For bitcoins that have changed hands in the last one to three months, Grayscale places this realized price around $74,000. This means that recent buyers have returned to roughly balance. They are no longer really underwater. And this detail often changes the mood of a market.
Why is this threshold closely monitored? Because a market where new entrants stop losing money breathes differently. The selling pressure may calm down. Weak hands sell slower. And if bitcoin settles above this zone, Grayscale sees the possible start of a first bullish phase. This is not definitive proof. This is a transition signal.
The market remains divided between two scenarios. For Grayscale, bitcoin has already purged most of the excess in February and it has entered a rebuilding phase. Conversely, others judge that the current rebound counts, but is not yet enough to validate the end of the bearish cycle. The real question is therefore simple: are we witnessing the start of a recovery, or just a pause before a new decline? Even with the accumulation of institutions, the debate remains open.
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