While the trade war between the United States and China threatens the global balance, Bitcoin is gradually promised to be the next international reserve currency.
Trade war and stock market chaos
The United States and China go back to blow to this trade war that started in 2018 when Donald Trump imposed customs duties on $ 250 billion in Chinese products. Beijing then replied by prices out of $ 110 billion in American goods.
The Biden government will maintain most taxes while negotiating a rebalancing of trade. But despite numerous agreements, China has not made all of its additional purchasing commitments of American products.
Tensions resumed in 2023 with the ban on exporting advanced semiconductors manufacturing machines. The Middle Kingdom has retaliated via restrictions on rare metal exports such as gallium and germanium, essential to the high-tech industry.
Trade tensions have crossed a new level with customs duties which now reach 125 %. In other words, trade between the two economic giants are on the verge of completely ceasing.
To put things in perspective, remember that China exported $ 439 billion to the United States in 2024. This represents 13 % of all Chinese exports and 16 % of American imports.
Hence the 19 % fall in the S&P 500. Bitcoin is back on $ 82,000, a drop of about 24 % compared to the highest $ 109,225 reached on January 20, 2025.
Painful, will say some, but it is nothing compared to 2018, when the BTC fell 77 % in reaction to the stock market turbulence caused by Psychosis COVVID (-77 %, etc.). It would seem that we have changed times and that monumental falls now belong to the past.
Finally, note that the rate at US 10 years (the polar star of the Secretary of the Treasury US Scott Bessent) remains very high (4.2 %) while the primary objective of government policy is to lower it.
The end of the Empire
The Americans could live above their means as long as the rest of the world agreed to finance their debt. It is the famous petrodollar system wanting exporting nations to place their commercial surpluses in US treasury bills
This monetary hegemony allows them to borrow cheap and import much more than they export (commercial deficit of $ 1100 billion per year) without collapse of its currency. But ultimately, nothing is really free! The back of the medal is a gargantuan debt. Uncle Sam owes nearly $ 8,000 billion to the rest of the world …
Everything was fine as long as the Empire could force the whole world to finance its Ponzienne debt, but all good things have an end. And when the BRICS say they no longer want to trade in dollars, it must be heard that they no longer want to finance the American lifestyle.
Message received at the White House where we decided to absorb the “Twin deficits”. The budget deficit (DOGE) and the trade deficit (customs taxes). The bet being that the drop in expenses, the assessment of the dollar and the reindustrialisation will compensate at least in part the inflation of import prices.
One has the impression of reliving the Gorbachev era with this time the dissolution of the American Empire in the highlight. And as in the USSR, the return to reality will not be painless; Donald Trump does not hide it. The good news is that this weight loss treatment takes us away from a third world war.
Unsurprisingly, the Chinese central bank has just summoned the banks to reduce their purchases of US treasury bills. The United States is ready to trade again on an equal footing and it must be congratulated. It was also the original objective of the gold stallion (Gold Standard) before the 1971 betrayal…
Bitcoin, the Bretton Woods 2.0
The forward flight of the debt cannot last forever and it is appreciable for the United States to realize it. Very well, we will now have to repay these 8,000 billion debts…
Indeed, not reimbursing the $ 800 billion that the United States owes China would probably not sell the annexation of Taiwan and its TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) factories…
This is why Donald Trump is closely interested in Bitcoin. The United States is well placed to know that Bitcoin is cut to become an international reserve currency. Bitwise Matt Hougan's IOC did not say anything else this Tuesday on Bloomberg:
What is most clearly emerging from all this price chaos is that we have to expect that we have spent a world where the dollar is the only reserve currency to a world where several reserve currencies coexist, which will benefit Bitcoin.
Matt Hougan, Cio de Bitwise, April 08, 2025
Accumulation of several million bitcoins before everyone else would allow the US government to release a large value capable of moping these $ 8,000 billion. This is the daring strategy of the American president and many ideas are on the table to achieve this. Sell gold or even emit bitbonds.
It is therefore very encouraging to see that Vladimir Putin is also interested in Bitcoin, he who is at the origin of the brics's sling off against the dollar. By letting the United States act first, the world could settle its accounts peacefully.
All this to say that Bitcoin is well started to become the next international reserve currency. As such, do not miss our article: The key argument in favor of Bitcoin.
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