The cryptos market has just undergone one of its most violent reversals for months. After reaching a historic summit of $ 109,000 on January 20, Bitcoin plunged 28 %. This fall erased in a few weeks dollars in capitalization. Such a brutal reversal intervenes in a context of economic tension and turbulence on the financial markets. But beyond a simple technical correction, several major events have contributed to this fall. Between macroeconomic fears, record cyber attacks and political disillusions, return on the causes of this tumble and on its implications.
A krach amplified by external shocks
The volatility of Bitcoin is not surprising, but this time, the fall is explained by a conjunction of major shocks. Indeed, the first trigger factor is based on an unfavorable macroeconomic context. Since the arrival of Donald Trump at the White House, his economic announcements have sowed confusion on the markets. In particular, the prospect of new customs taxes on international exchanges has cooled investors. “This withdrawal can be interpreted as an answer to macroeconomic fears linked to Trump customs tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty”, explain Caroline Bowler, CEO of BTC Markets. The correction goes beyond Bitcoin. Also, the Nasdaq 100 has lost 7 % since its last summit of February 19, which illustrates a general distrust of risky assets.
Cybersecurity, Achilles heel of the crypto ecosystem, also played a crucial role. This February 21, 2025, the Exchange Bybit underwent the greatest hacking in the history of the cryptos, orchestrated by the Lazarus group of North Korea. The hackers stole $ 1.5 billion in crypto. They especially managed to unravel the Cold Wallets, supposed to be ultra-secure because it is disconnected from the Internet. “Confidence was shaken after this $ 1.5 billion hacking, which represents a colossal sum,” said Zaheer Ebtikar, co -founder of the Split Capital fund. This shock caused a panic sale, but it also strengthened doubts about the reliability of exchange infrastructure, with the consequence of the temporary withdrawal of certain market investors.
A pressure market and disappointed expectations
The drop in prices then increased under the effect of technical market movements. In February, the Bitcoin Stock Exchange (ETF) funds recorded a net output of $ 3.3 billion, a negative record since their launch in January 2024. The dynamics are simple: when the price of Bitcoin falls, some investors withdraw their capital from ETFs, which accentuates the sale pressure on the market. Thus, “the speculative money that enters the Bitcoin comes out as quickly when a correction occurs”, analyzes Michael Rosen, director of investments at Angeles Investments.
Another aggravating factor is the end of optimism linked to Donald Trump. During his campaign, the American president had positioned himself as a fervent defender of the cryptos, and notably promised the constitution of a national stockpile from Bitcoin. But since his inauguration, concrete announcements are slow to come. The project led by senator Cynthia Lummis, who was aimed at buying up to a million bitcoins by the American state over five years, found no support for the congress. “What motivates this fall is the absence of the expected Pro-Crypto executive decrees and inflation figures in the United States,” said Paul Howard, director at Winccent. Even on the scale of states, the ambitions of strategic reserve in Bitcoin have been slowed down: Montana, Northern Dakota and Wyoming have all rejected proposals in this direction, and invoke the risks and volatility of cryptos.
After this brutal correction, the market wonders about the next Bitcoin direction. Is it a simple consolidation before a new Bull Run, or the beginning of a longer bearish cycle? Everything will depend on Trump's economic decisions, the evolution of regulation and especially the return or not of the confidence of institutional investors. For the moment, caution remains in order, and Bitcoin will have to demonstrate a resilience capacity in the face of this new stress test.
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