Since its beginnings, bitcoin has followed almost perfect mechanics. Every four years, the halving came to restart the machine, like a metronome. But times are changing. In 2025, mathematical gravity is no longer enough. The cycles are distorted, slowed down, sometimes reversed. The price of BTC no longer only reacts to halvings or stories. He is sucked into another dimension: that of rates, the Fed, and global monetary policy. Bitcoin has grown, and now it lives in the same world as other risk assets.
In brief
- The bitcoin cycle seems more influenced by the American elections than by the halving.
- Inflows are slowing into ETFs, weakening the dynamics of the current crypto market.
- The Fed's unpredictable decisions make macro reading difficult for crypto investors.
- Altcoin volume is under pressure despite growing interest in crypto products on the stock market.
Halving or elections: who really controls Bitcoin?
For a long time, the crypto industry loved the idea of a “4-year cycle”. Simple, reassuring. But Markus Thielen (10X Research) throws a stone in the pond :
It is not the halving that dictates the pace, but rather the mid-term elections. They generally coincide with a period of consolidation for the equity markets. When we look at Bitcoin's highs in 2013, 2017, and 2021, they all fall in the fourth quarter. This sticks much better than the halving dates, which move.
He notes that the peaks have always occurred at the end of the year: December 2013, December 2017, November 2021. And today?
With a confused Fed, unclear economic policy and internal divisions, the machine is seized up. Jerome Powell may multiply his speeches, but the markets hear nothing clearly. Result: Bitcoin has exited its bullish channel that began in 2023. Investors no longer know which way to turn.
And this vagueness does not spare other cryptos. In a market dominated by macro uncertainty, altcoins suffer even more. Ethereum stagnates, the others fade away. Thielen warns that without a surge in inflows, the crypto market will not rebound.
Bitcoin, rates and confusion: the market seeks a conductor
The first market movement after a Fed announcement is always the bad one, some traders believe. On the day of the Fed's latest decision, Bitcoin jumped to $94,000… before falling back to $89,000.
In question? A Jerome Powell press conference deemed ambiguous: he starts neutral, ends dovish, but the official message remains hawkish. In short, nothing is decided. Thielen's analysis is relentless:
Powell started with a balanced view. But as the press conference went on, he became more and more dovish, which confused the markets. He constantly changes his tone.
Meanwhile, flows into Bitcoin ETFs are slowing. By December 2023, $34 billion had flowed into crypto products. In 2025, there will be barely 22 billion. Worse: on-chain flows are now negative. Institutions remain at a distance. And CEXs, like Coinbase or Binance, are seeing their activity fall due to lack of volume.
In this context, crypto cycles can no longer be read as before. Even supporters of the supercycle, like Tom Lee, struggle to convince. He suggests that the recovery of the ISM (the index of industrial activity) could revive Bitcoin. But Thielen is skeptical: the economy is no longer industrial. The ISM no longer reflects anything.
CEX, IPO and altcoins: towards another crypto cycle?
As the Bitcoin cycle slips, another driver emerges: the stock markets. Crypto IPOs, from Circle to Robinhood, are capturing attention. Even Korean investors, long fond of altcoins, are turning to American crypto stocks. Thielen cites a telling number: At one point, crypto volume in Korea exceeded that of all local stocks combined by 50%.
But this shift is logical. Institutional money no longer wants the 733 token on CoinMarketCap. He wants regulation, audited balance sheets, liquidity. Result: altcoins excluding Ethereum and BNB are experiencing a journey through the desert. And again, BNB only gets by thanks to its ecosystem, its returns and its internal dynamics.
Crypto cycles are therefore changing. They are not dead, but they change shape. And as Thielen says: “As long as there are no net inflows, the crypto market is not going anywhere. »
5 benchmarks to remember about BTC and monetary policy
- Current price of Bitcoin: $89,005, falling after an attempted increase to 94,000;
- Crypto ETF: $34 billion in inflows in December 2023, only $22 billion in 2025;
- First negative flows on the Bitcoin blockchain since August 2023;
- Crypto volume in Korea: $25 billion in one day, compared to $15 billion for the entire stock market;
- $59 billion in unlocks planned for altcoins in 2025, a real brake on the recovery.
One last element not to be underestimated in this equation: historical Bitcoin holders. These “hodlers” who refuse to sell, even during peaks, limit available liquidity. Their inertia could slow down price movements, especially in an already tense market. Understanding their role therefore becomes crucial to anticipate the rest of the cycle.
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