Bitcoin - Week 37

There is no secret. A bull run requires millions of new bitcoiners. Which will not be long in view of the risk of hyperinflation and the perilous geopolitical context.

Bitcoin is coming

We are at the confluence of geopolitical upheavals and energy peaks. The EU has allied itself with Ukraine, probably seeing it as a golden opportunity to put the “end of abundance” on the back of Vladimir Putin.

Making the forced-market energy transition first may be a blessing in disguise, but it won’t happen without tears. This abrupt energy withdrawal promises us shortages and inflation. Even rationing…

Siberian gas no longer arrives and specialists argue that stocks will be empty from January. Many industries will have to poach and BlackRock predicts a recession ” very serious “ for the old continent.

A remake of the 2008 crisis is in the works. At the time, the trigger was the surge in the price of a barrel of oil to $150 because of the conventional oil peak. The world had finally gotten out of the rut thanks to the shale oil “revolution”, the peak of which has unfortunately already been passed.

This time, the shock should come from the G7 countries which have taken it into their heads to pay for Russian energy at whatever price they want. This desperate initiative is doomed to failure, according to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere:

“We are skeptical of a maximum price for natural gas. A maximum price will not change the fact that there is too little gas in Europe. »

After cutting off the gas, Russia could indeed stop its oil exports. That is 10% of world exports (5 million barrels) which will not be found anywhere else. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen even warned that the price of a barrel could rise sharply this winter.

The United States is proud of this EU which sacrifices itself to weaken Vladimir Putin and his stated ambition to de-dollarize the world!

An ambition shared by China, which has divided its dollar reserves by four since 2014. These have fallen from 4,000 billion dollars to less than 1,000 billion. A survey conducted by UBS last month with 30 major central banks also revealed that 85% of them have invested in the yuan or wish to do so this year.

“We are witnessing a gradual erosion of the dollar”said Massimiliano Castelli, head of global sovereign markets strategy at UBS. “We are moving towards a multipolar monetary system”.

It is again in the name of the petrodollar that Iran is disconnected from the SWIFT system. It is pathetic to see German Green Chancellor Olaf Scholz pretending “that Iran should never have nuclear weapons” so as not to lift the embargo. The truth is that we obey Uncle Sam who refuses that the Persians can sell their oil in currencies other than the dollar.

In other words, do not count on Persian oil to lower the price of a barrel this winter. Reviving the Iran nuclear deal is “unlikely in the short term said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday.

As a result, Tehran has just announced that it is joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. It is therefore to be expected that Iranian oil production, which will soon be multiplied tenfold by Chinese investments, will be partly purchased in yuan.

We could also talk about Taiwan as drones crossed the unofficial demarcation line of the Taiwan Strait for the first time this Sunday…

But let us content ourselves with saying that the United States does not intend to give up its monetary imperialism. This is the real cause of the war in Ukraine, of the torpedoing of negotiations with Iran or of the Taiwanese imbroglio.

Washington is trying to create a new “axis of evil” to dissuade the rest of the world from abandoning the dollar as well. All the central banks have 7,000 billion dollars without which the dollar exchange rate would collapse.

Monetary and military war, energy shortages, inflation, rising rates, bursting of real estate and stock market bubbles, recession… Times are tough and tens of millions of people should soon be looking for a solution to protect their fortunes. Let’s bet they will look into bitcoin.

Let’s end by pointing out that the giant investment fund Fidelity will allow its 34 million customers to buy bitcoins.

Oh, and the bitcoin hashrate just hit a new all-time high…

Glassnode Weekly Report Summary

The analysis firm on chain notes that BTC has been moving in a consolidation channel for three months. “The number of BTC showing an unrealized loss is now at 48.1%. »

“We recently hit $18,649, a 72.5% drawdown from the November ATH”writing Glassnodewhich points out that the drawdown 2022 is only as important as those of 2015, 2018 and 2020 (over 77%).

Here is the history of drawdowns of BTC against the dollar:

bitcoin drawdown
Drawndown (percentage decline since previous ATH) of Bitcoin

For Glassnode, “the recent upturn in demand has so far proved insufficient to absorb the selling pressure”. “It is now a question of defending the threshold of $20,000. A bear market often takes several months to leave the bottom. »

When will we leave the floor? This winter, in the light of a global awareness of the hyperinflationary horizon? Bitcoin is coming…

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