Fidelity Digital Assets, a crypto investment giant, has just lowered its medium-term forecasts for Bitcoin. If the company remains optimistic for the short term, several indicators suggest that the queen of cryptos has lost its luster.
A Bitcoin that is no longer “cheap”
According to the latest Signals report published on April 22 by Fidelity, several indicators suggest that Bitcoin is no longer in an attractive buying zone. The Bitcoin Yardstick, a ratio used to determine whether the cryptocurrency is oversold, showed “no days in the first quarter where BTC was considered undervalued.”
In addition, other technical and on-chain signals corroborate this analysis. Long-time hodlers are contributing to the selling pressure, while 99% of Bitcoin addresses are in profit, which could trigger profit-taking.
Metrics such as the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) ratio and MVRV Z-Score confirm this trend, indicating that BTC is trading at a level close to its intrinsic value.
Bullish potential intact for the short term
Despite this bearish revision, Fidelity maintains a bullish outlook for Bitcoin in the short term. Several technical elements support this vision:
- The price of Bitcoin remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages, confirming bullish momentum.
- On-chain indicators are significantly higher than the lows reached during previous market cycles.
- The realized price, representing the average cost of current holders, stands at $28,000 and constitutes solid support since mid-January.
Furthermore, accumulation continues among small investors. Wallets holding more than $1,000 worth of BTC have jumped 20% since January, reaching record levels. Balances on exchanges are also decreasing, easing selling pressure.
Bitcoin has been moving in a price range since February, oscillating between $60,000 and $72,000. But the recent halving propelled its price by 5%, allowing it to touch a 10-day high of $66,863.
Chris Kuiper, director of research at Fidelity, points out that the market is still far from historic highs. According to him, “we are halfway through the cycle, and historically, most of the price increases occur in the second part of the cycle. » Enough to keep hope for the future.
Maximize your Tremplin.io experience with our 'Read to Earn' program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
