Gold and bitcoin prance. One benefits above all from geopolitical tensions, the other from anticipation regarding ETFs and “halving”.
Bitcoin: $42,000
Bitcoin has returned to $40,000 for the first time since May 2022. It is up 142% since the start of the year. And 160% compared to its last low, just a year ago.
The barbarian relic also wriggles, finally delivering a new all-time high. Gold has recorded a modest gain of 11% since the start of the year. That is to say a performance twelve times lower than that of bitcoin…
The two stores of value rise in tandem, but for different reasons. Bitcoin is galvanized by the imminent ETF while gold seems to benefit mainly from geopolitical tensions.
That said, let’s emphasize that bitcoin IS gold, only better. For two main reasons. Its rarity and ease of transaction:
-The money supply of bitcoin is limited to 21 million units. Conversely, each year we produce more gold than the previous year. Next April, thanks to halving, bitcoin will officially be twice as rare as gold.
-Bitcoins travel from one end of the world to the other almost free and instantly. Not to mention the fact that gold cannot be used directly as money.
Here is an entertaining one-minute video to illustrate:
Geopolitical tensions push gold higher
The end of the truce between Israelis and Palestinians is the major event which causes the rise in gold, which remains the safe haven par excellence as long as there is no Bitcoin ETF.
The conflict risks disrupting the global supply chain, in turn exacerbating inflation which remains high almost everywhere in the world.
The reason being that Yemen is carrying out piracy actions in the Red Sea. Knowing that approximately 12% of world maritime trade passes through this vital artery for the old continent. Including six million barrels of oil per day (9% of the total transported by sea).
Attacks have increased since the fanfare capture of the Israeli cargo boat Galaxy. This weekend, an American warship as well as three Israeli ships were targeted by several Yemeni drones.
“There were four attacks on three separate commercial vessels operating in international waters in the southern Red Sea”indicates the press release from the American central command.
Israeli media reports that one of the ships attacked by Yemen’s Ansarallah resistance forces “has been considerably damaged and is in danger of sinking.”
“Today we are waging a decisive fight against the United States and the Zionist enemy. We will continue it until the attacks on Gaza stop”declared the spokesperson for the Yemeni armed forces.
Going around Africa rather than taking the Suez Canal extends the journeys by a week for the merchant navy. This could result in inflation again.
This was the case when the container ship Ever Given ran aground in 2021 in the Suez Canal and Chinese ports began stopped due to covid…
Bitcoin ATH for 2024
The SEC has been making contacts with funds wishing to launch ETFs backed by bitcoin for several weeks.
For ETF expert James Sayffart, these conversations come when the green light is imminent… “We believe the probability that Ark’s proposed ETF will be approved before January 10, 2024 is 90%”he declared a few weeks ago.
For him, the SEC will probably validate all ETFs at once between January 5 and 10. January 5 being the deadline for the approval or not of the ETF of Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest fund.
Another force at work: “halving”. In April, the reward distributed to miners for each of their blocks will decrease by half. Rather than 6.25 BTC, the amount of BTC created every 10 minutes will melt to 3,125 BTC.
Every four years, the bitcoin protocol halves its monetary emission. Which, in the past, has always resulted in a marked appreciation:
Many people see bitcoin crossing $100,000 in 2024. Notably Blockstream CEO Adam Back, or even Standard Chartered bank.
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