The cryptocurrency market is approaching a new vantage point, while traditional assets are holding up better. Mike McGlone, senior commodities strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, warns of a possible reversal. According to him, the performance of bitcoin against US Treasury bonds could weigh on several markets. The threshold of $80,000 particularly catches his attention. Prolonged weakness below this level could accentuate the sector’s difficulties.
In brief
- Mike McGlone, analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, warns of a possible turning point for bitcoin.
- The IBIT/TLT ratio fell to 81 as of October 30, a relative lag of 19% since the end of 2024.
- BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has four times the volatility of the TLT bond fund.
- According to McGlone, prolonged weakness below $80,000 could weaken the entire crypto market.
Bitcoin: a growing gap with American bonds
In a recent post on X, Mike McGlone described a potential turning point. He believes that a decline in crypto against Treasury securities could have widespread consequences. Its analysis therefore goes beyond the digital assets market alone. It also covers the relationship between risky investments and American public bonds.
To support his scenario, the analyst compares two exchange-traded funds. The first, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), tracks the price of bitcoin. The second, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), provides access to long-duration US bonds. This comparison allows us to observe their relative performances since the end of 2024.
As of October 30, the IBIT/TLT ratio reached 81, according to McGlone. The analyst had set his basis for comparison at 100 at the end of 2024. The fund linked to cryptocurrencies therefore lags behind the bond fund by around 19%. This result highlights the change in dynamics between these two asset categories.
The $80,000 threshold at the center of concerns
The IBIT/TLT ratio has struggled to exceed 100 since the fourth quarter of 2025. This development continues the relative underperformance observed by McGlone. It comes even as the fund devoted to bitcoin is experiencing greater variations. The gap between the two investments thus fuels the analyst’s concerns.
McGlone says IBIT has about four times the volatility of TLT. Despite these fluctuations, the bond fund has maintained a relative advantage since the end of 2024. In other words, the more marked market movements have not produced better performance. The comparison therefore highlights a persistent divergence.
Another benchmark in this analysis is the $80,000 level. According to McGlone, sustained weakness below this threshold could complicate the situation for cryptocurrencies. He links this risk to underperformance against US bonds. His warning thus concerns the possible consequences for other categories of assets.
Bloomberg questions the end of the golden age of Bitcoin
McGlone also wonders if the best times for cryptocurrencies are now in the past. He recalls that 2024 marked an important year for the sector. The United States then saw the launch of bitcoin-linked spot ETFs. At the same time, Donald Trump moved from a critical position to open support for cryptocurrencies.
Since that time, however, the market has failed to outperform traditional government bonds, according to the analyst. This contrast fuels his questioning about the solidity of its long-term dynamic. He presents this development as a signal to watch, and not as a certainty. Relative performance remains at the heart of his reasoning.
What happens next will depend in particular on the ability of bitcoin to regain better momentum compared to public securities. If its weakness persists below $80,000, tensions could affect other assets. Conversely, an improvement in the IBIT/TLT ratio would modify the current observation. The evolution of this indicator will therefore make it possible to measure whether BTC can reverse this trend.
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